Monthly surge raises fresh concerns as rural prices spike and cost pressures quietly build again…..
Nigeria’s inflation rate edged higher in March 2026, signaling renewed short-term pressure on household costs even as broader yearly trends suggest some easing.
New figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that headline inflation rose to 15.38 percent in March, up slightly from 15.06 percent recorded in February. While the increase appears modest, it reflects a shift in momentum after months of gradual moderation.
On a year-on-year basis, however, inflation remains significantly lower than the 27.35 percent recorded in March 2025, highlighting the impact of base effects and earlier price surges.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change in prices of goods and services, climbed to 135.4 in March from 130.0 in February, a notable month-to-month increase that underscores rising cost pressures.
A closer look at monthly movements reveals a sharper trend. Inflation rose by 4.18 percent in March on a month-on-month basis, more than double February’s 2.01 percent, suggesting that prices are once again accelerating in the short term.
Food prices, a major driver of inflation in Nigeria, showed mixed signals. On a yearly basis, food inflation stood at 14.31 percent, a sharp drop from 25.22 percent in March last year. Month-on-month, however, food inflation eased slightly to 4.17 percent from 4.69 percent in February.
The NBS attributed the moderation in food inflation to slower increases in the prices of key staples such as yam, fresh ginger, cassava, groundnuts, Irish potatoes, ogbono, fresh tomatoes, and cassava flour.
Urban and rural inflation trends continued to diverge. Urban inflation came in at 14.64 percent year-on-year, while rural inflation was higher at 17.22 percent, reflecting stronger price pressures outside major cities.
More notably, rural inflation surged by 6.73 percent on a month-on-month basis, a sharp jump compared to just 0.71 percent in February pointing to intensifying cost challenges in rural communities.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 16.21 percent year-on-year, down considerably from 27.12 percent in March 2025. However, on a monthly basis, it climbed to 4.03 percent, up from 0.89 percent in February, indicating broader underlying price increases.
On a 12-month average basis, headline inflation settled at 21.09 percent, lower than the 27.34 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
At the state level, inflationary pressures varied widely. Bayelsa recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 27.37 percent, followed by Sokoto at 26.03 percent and Bauchi at 23.67 percent. In contrast, Osun, Kano, and Kaduna posted the lowest rates at 5.25 percent, 9.85 percent, and 10.38 percent respectively.
Month-on-month data showed Zamfara leading with the fastest price increases at 10.77 percent, followed by Bauchi and Sokoto. Lagos, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers recorded the slowest monthly increases, suggesting relatively milder price movements in those states.
Food inflation also showed sharp regional differences. Bayelsa, Sokoto, and Adamawa recorded the highest annual food inflation rates, while Kano, Oyo, and Katsina saw the slowest increases.
On a monthly basis, food prices rose fastest in Sokoto, Niger, and Gombe, whereas Katsina, Ogun, and Adamawa recorded the smallest increases.
Overall, while Nigeria’s inflation picture appears to be improving when viewed year-on-year, the latest monthly data suggests that price pressures may be building again, particularly outside urban centers, a trend that could shape economic conditions in the months ahead.
