Think tank says easing inflation figures may offer temporary relief, but rising energy costs and global tensions continue to threaten economic stability……
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has cautioned that Nigeria’s inflation slowdown remains fragile despite signs of easing price pressures in April 2026.
In a statement released on May 15 and signed by its Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, the economic policy group said the latest inflation data points to a gradual moderation in inflationary momentum, although underlying pressures remain significant for businesses and households.
According to the group, headline inflation rose marginally from 15.38 per cent in March to 15.69 per cent in April, reflecting what it described as a delicate and vulnerable disinflation process.
While the overall inflation rate increased slightly, CPPE noted that several key month-on-month indicators showed encouraging moderation.
The organisation highlighted a 2.05 per cent decline in headline month-on-month inflation, while food inflation eased by 0.54 percentage points during the period under review.
It also disclosed that core inflation dropped by three per cent, urban inflation moderated by 1.3 per cent, while rural inflation recorded a sharper decline of 3.9 per cent.
According to CPPE, the figures indicate that short-term inflationary momentum may be weakening after months of persistent pressure on consumer prices.
However, the think tank warned that inflationary conditions remain harsh across critical sectors of the economy.
It pointed out that food inflation still stood at 16.06 per cent, while core inflation remained elevated at 15.86 per cent, continuing to squeeze household incomes and operating margins for businesses.
CPPE identified food, transportation, energy products, healthcare and restaurant services as the major drivers of inflation in April, noting that the sectors accounted for nearly 87 per cent of overall inflationary pressure during the month.
The organisation also raised concerns over fresh external risks linked to escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States.
According to the statement, uncertainty in the global oil market has already contributed to rising crude oil prices, with knock-on effects on domestic fuel and energy costs in Nigeria.
CPPE warned that higher petrol, diesel and gas prices are increasing transportation, logistics and production expenses across industries, further complicating efforts to stabilise prices.
The policy group maintained that Nigeria’s inflation problem remains largely structural and supply-driven, arguing that monetary tightening alone cannot resolve issues tied to energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, food supply disruptions and infrastructure gaps.
It cautioned that aggressive monetary policy tightening could worsen financing conditions for businesses, discourage investment and ultimately weaken productivity growth.
As part of its recommendations, CPPE urged federal and state governments to prioritise supply-side reforms aimed at reducing production and distribution costs.
The organisation called for urgent interventions in energy pricing, transportation infrastructure, food supply chains, trade facilitation and domestic manufacturing support.
For businesses, the think tank advised the adoption of energy-saving strategies, flexible pricing systems and affordability-focused product models as consumers continue to adjust spending habits amid economic pressure.
CPPE concluded that although inflationary momentum appears to be slowing, the broader disinflation process remains vulnerable to both domestic weaknesses and external economic shocks, especially fluctuations in the global energy market.
