Crude production rises slightly in April but remains below quota for ninth consecutive month….
Nigeria has once again fallen short of its crude oil production target approved by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), raising fresh concerns over the country’s ability to meet revenue expectations tied to its ambitious 2026 budget plans.
New data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on Tuesday showed that the country produced an average of about 1.4 million barrels of crude oil per day in April 2026, slightly below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota allocated by OPEC.
According to the commission’s National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report, Nigeria achieved roughly 99 per cent of its assigned quota during the month.
When condensates were added, however, total daily oil production climbed to approximately 1.6 million barrels per day.
The figures underscore Nigeria’s ongoing struggle to consistently meet production expectations despite repeated government promises to raise output to 2 million barrels daily in order to improve foreign exchange inflows, increase national revenue and support execution of the 2026 budget.
The April production numbers also remain below the 1.84 million barrels per day benchmark adopted by the Federal Government for the current fiscal year.
With the latest shortfall, Nigeria has now failed to meet its OPEC crude oil production quota for nine consecutive months dating back to July 2025.
The NUPRC report showed that combined crude oil and condensate production reached a peak of 1.85 million barrels per day during the month, while the lowest daily output stood at 1.46 million barrels per day.
Although April’s performance reflected an improvement from March’s production level of 1.55 million barrels per day, it was still not enough to close the gap with the OPEC target.
Nigeria produced 1.38 million barrels per day of crude oil in March, representing a 69,000 barrels-per-day increase from the 1.31 million barrels recorded in February. Despite the rise, production remained about 117,000 barrels per day below the country’s approved quota.
February had marked one of the sharpest declines in recent months, with output dropping by 146,000 barrels per day compared to January figures, further widening Nigeria’s production deficit.
Earlier in January, the country recorded a modest rebound as crude production rose from 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 to 1.46 million barrels per day. However, the recovery proved temporary after output weakened again in February.
Nigeria’s oil sector has continued to battle multiple structural challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and declining upstream investment.
These long-standing issues have significantly affected the country’s ability to maximise production capacity even as global oil prices remain volatile.
Historical production data also showed Nigeria struggled to maintain consistency throughout 2025.
The country exceeded or slightly met its OPEC allocation in only three months January, June and July while falling below target during the remaining months of the year.
Nigeria started 2025 on a relatively strong note, producing 1.54 million barrels per day in January, exceeding its OPEC quota by about 38,700 barrels daily.
But momentum weakened soon after, with output dropping to 1.47 million barrels per day in February before declining further to 1.40 million barrels per day in March.
The persistent production shortfall comes at a critical time for the Federal Government as authorities continue to depend heavily on oil earnings to stabilise the economy, strengthen external reserves and fund public spending commitments.
