Output improves slightly in March but remains below target, raising concerns over revenue and refinery supply….
Nigeria’s crude oil production remains under pressure, falling short of its allocated quota from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for the eighth consecutive month.
According to the cartel’s April Monthly Oil Market Report, the country produced an average of 1.38 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March. While this marks an increase from February’s 1.31 mbpd, it still leaves Nigeria trailing its 1.5 mbpd quota by about 117,000 barrels per day.
A Pattern of Underperformance
The latest figures highlight a persistent struggle to meet production targets.
February’s output had already dropped sharply by 146,000 bpd compared to January, deepening the gap between actual production and OPEC expectations. Although January saw a brief recovery rising to 1.459 mbpd from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025, the momentum quickly faded.
This trend mirrors a broader pattern seen throughout 2025, when Nigeria failed to meet its quota in nine out of twelve months.
The year started on a strong note, with production reaching 1.54 mbpd in January above the OPEC benchmark. However, output declined soon after, slipping to 1.47 mbpd in February and further down to 1.40 mbpd in March, one of the widest deficits recorded during the year.
Modest recoveries in April and May were not enough to close the gap, although Nigeria briefly exceeded its quota in June and maintained that level in July before slipping again in the following months.
Early 2026 Output Below Expectations
Production figures for the first quarter of 2026 have also come in below the Federal Government’s budget assumptions, raising concerns about revenue projections and fiscal stability.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had earlier shown that output weakened toward the end of 2025 before posting a slight recovery in January 2026.
However, the dip in February and only partial rebound in March underscore the fragile nature of that recovery.
Hope for Rebound as Maintenance Ends
Despite the challenges, there are signs of potential improvement.
The Chief Executive of the regulatory commission recently stated that total oil production, including condensates, reached 1.8 mbpd in March. An internal source also indicated that production began recovering in mid-March after key oil assets resumed operations following turnaround maintenance.
There is cautious optimism that output could align with OPEC’s quota in April if the recovery is sustained.
Impact on Revenue and Refineries
Nigeria’s inability to meet its production target is having wider economic consequences.
Lower output has reduced export earnings at a time when the government is relying heavily on oil revenue. It has also created supply challenges for domestic refineries, many of which are struggling to secure adequate crude feedstock.
In response, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has moved to source crude oil through international traders to support local refining operations, including supply arrangements for the Dangote refinery.
Global Context: Mixed Output Across OPEC
Elsewhere within OPEC, production trends have varied widely.
Major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq recorded significant cuts, while countries like Venezuela, Congo, and Libya posted modest increases. Some members, including Iran and Gabon, had incomplete or unavailable data in the latest report.
A Critical Moment for Nigeria’s Oil Sector
As Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria’s continued underperformance relative to its OPEC quota raises important questions about infrastructure, investment, and operational efficiency in the sector.
While recent gains offer a glimmer of hope, sustained improvements will be crucial, not just to meet international commitments, but to stabilize the country’s economy and support its growing domestic energy needs.
