Dangote refinery output remains strong, but declining domestic contribution and rising imports reshape Nigeria’s fuel supply dynamics…..
Nigeria’s petrol supply recorded a modest rebound in March 2026, rising to 40.1 million litres per day (ml/d), as increased imports helped offset shifts in domestic supply dynamics.
The latest data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that supply improved slightly from 39.5 ml/d in February, reflecting a gradual stabilisation in the downstream market.
Domestic sources accounted for the bulk of supply at 34.2 ml/d, while imports contributed 5.9 ml/d, nearly double the 3 ml/d recorded in the previous month. The sharp increase in import volumes points to a cautious return of external suppliers, even as licensing activity remained relatively limited.
Despite the rebound, Nigeria’s fuel supply structure continues to lean heavily on the Dangote Refinery, which remains the dominant player in local refining. The facility recorded an output of 48.2 ml/d in March and operated at an average capacity utilisation of 93.62 percent.
However, its direct contribution to domestic petrol supply has been on a steady decline for three consecutive months. From 40.1 ml/d in January, supply from the refinery dropped to 36 ml/d in February and further to 34.2 ml/d in March, a trend that suggests shifting distribution patterns or internal supply adjustments.
At the same time, the resurgence in imports appears to be filling emerging gaps. The near doubling of imported volumes highlights their continued role as a balancing force, particularly in periods of fluctuating local supply.
On the demand side, consumption fell sharply to 47.3 ml/d in March, down from 56.9 ml/d in February. The drop in demand, combined with improved supply, points to a temporary easing of pressure across the market.
Fuel prices, however, remained elevated. Average pump prices stood at ₦1,249.01 per litre in Lagos, ₦1,286.81 in Abuja, and ₦1,280.43 in Enugu, underscoring the persistent cost burden on consumers.
Even with the relative improvement, a supply-demand gap persists. Total supply of 40.1 ml/d still falls short of consumption levels, indicating continued strain on inventories and distribution networks.
A broader comparison reveals a more concerning trend. On a year-on-year basis, average daily petrol supply has dropped significantly from 51.6 ml/d in March 2025 to 40.1 ml/d in March 2026, representing a decline of 11.5 ml/d, or over 22 percent.
While month-on-month figures suggest some recovery, the overall picture highlights a market still in transition, where imports remain critical to stability and domestic refining capacity continues to evolve under pressure from both local and global forces.
