Russia likely used its so-called shadow fleet to launch drones over Europe in a covert campaign aimed at testing NATO air defences, monitoring military installations and disrupting civilian aviation, according to a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The report identified 144 suspected drone sightings across Europe between 2024 and 2026, with incidents recorded in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Denmark. The sightings peaked in late 2025, forcing the temporary closure of several airports in Germany, Spain and Denmark.
The report said Russia likely used shadow fleet vessels as launch platforms for the drones, concluding that “it’s highly likely that Russia is using them as platforms for launching drones.”
According to the IISS, the campaign was designed to remain below the threshold that would trigger collective NATO action while exposing weaknesses in Europe’s air-defence systems.
The report described the operation as a “strategic failure” for Europe that exposed how the continent’s air defenses are not fit to deal with the current threat.
Although several European officials acknowledged it remains difficult to definitively attribute the drone incursions to Russia, NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Air Chief Marshal John Stringer, said the incidents fit a broader pattern of disruptive activity seen across Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Stringer said it is up to each alliance member to decide how to respond to such threats, adding that many countries are taking the issue increasingly seriously.
The report linked several incidents to Russian shadow fleet vessels, including the Vezhen, which it said sailed in circles off Ireland’s coast during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit in December 2025, while another nearby vessel had switched off its tracking signal.
The IISS also pointed to suspected drone activity near Denmark involving the vessel Boracay, with French President Emmanuel Macron previously saying he could not rule out the ship’s involvement in drone flights over Denmark.
The report further suggested Russia sought to gather intelligence on sensitive NATO military facilities, including US air bases in Britain, defence sites in Germany, military installations in Belgium and the Netherlands believed to host American nuclear weapons, and France’s Ile Longue submarine base.
Sweden’s military representative to NATO, Lt. Gen. Jonny Lindfors, said “It’s a reasonable assumption” that Russia is launching drones from shadow fleet ships, while acknowledging that attribution remains “almost impossible.”
The report urged European countries to rapidly strengthen counter-drone capabilities, warning that the repeated incursions demonstrated serious shortcomings in the continent’s air-defence network. “It would be naive to believe it’s just a coincidence.” that such threats have become “the new normal.”
Erizia Rubyjeana
