New NBS data shows steady contribution to output despite slowdown in quarterly trading activity….
Nigeria’s trade sector contributed 17.89% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figure underscores the continued role of trade as one of the most influential drivers of Nigeria’s non-oil economy, even as businesses continue to navigate inflationary pressures, import costs, and shifting consumer demand patterns.
The latest GDP report shows a slight decline from 18.21% recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, but an improvement compared to 16.84% posted in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Despite the marginal drop in contribution year-on-year, the sector recorded modest growth in real terms, expanding by 2.08% in Q1 2026. This is higher than the 1.78% recorded in Q1 2025 and slightly above the 2.00% posted in Q4 2025.
However, the report also highlighted a sharp quarterly contraction, with trade activity falling by 14.85% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a slowdown in business transactions relative to the end-of-year trading peak in 2025.
In nominal terms, the sector posted a strong year-on-year expansion of 38.15%, significantly outperforming the 9.13% recorded in the same period last year and the 17.05% recorded in the preceding quarter.
The NBS noted: “Trade’s year-on-year growth stood at 2.08% in the first quarter of 2026, which was 0.29 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in the previous year at 1.78%, and 0.08 percentage points higher than in the preceding quarter.”
It added that quarter-on-quarter performance reflected a contraction of 14.85% during the period under review.
Overall, Nigeria’s economy recorded real GDP growth of 3.89% year-on-year in Q1 2026, pointing to continued but uneven expansion across key sectors of the economy.
Aggregate nominal GDP at basic prices also rose sharply to N110.79 trillion, compared to N94.05 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The trade sector remains a key pillar of Nigeria’s economy, supporting employment, retail activity, and distribution networks across the country, particularly within the rapidly growing services and informal sectors.
Recent trade data also highlights shifting external dynamics. Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N1.71 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as export volumes declined during the period.
Exports accounted for 52.36% of total trade in that quarter, valued at N18.96 trillion. However, total merchandise trade fell by 1.07% year-on-year and 8.94% quarter-on-quarter.
While exports declined from both Q4 2024 and Q3 2025 levels, imports edged higher, rising to N17.25 trillion, reflecting increased demand for foreign goods despite currency and cost pressures.
Analysts say the mixed performance highlights a balancing act in Nigeria’s trade environment where strong nominal growth coexists with periodic contractions in activity, driven largely by seasonal trends and broader macroeconomic conditions.
