A win by more than a length over classy opposition over 2400m at Greyville on Saturday was sure to turn a few heads in the direction of Native Ruler, who immediately shortened in the Hollywoodbets Durban July betting – from 25.00 to 16.67.
Native Ruler is one of six entries champion trainer Justin Snaith still holds for South Africa’s biggest horse race – to be run on 4 July for a record stake of R10-million – and has been the one flying under the radar as July fever builds up.
Snaith plays open cards with multiple big-race runners, detailing each horse’s positives, but you’d imagine he has at least a couple of other hot-shot candidates higher on his winning likelihood list.
As have a host of smart punters after the July weights were announced on Monday and the gelding was assigned 57kg, his merit rating having climbed to 121. A woefully slow time for Native Ruler’s victory in the Winter Stakes further put brakes on a betting plunge.
The last six Julys have been won with an average of about 53.6kg in the saddle, a data trend that prompted the operator to change the race conditions to try to enhance the chances of highly rated (but heftily weighted) star performers.
Unveiling of the handicappers’ work this week threw up no surprises in terms of the weight spread across the 28 remaining hopefuls – from Legal Counsel at MR 128 and 62kg down to Curious Girl at 100 and 46kg – but it still looks like lighter weighted horses might enjoy an advantage this year.
Trainers will try to outsmart any handicapping system and those who have “hidden away” their July entries might have got it right again – albeit at the risk of not qualifying for the final line-up. The scratching of three or four leading lights last week probably ensured the risk strategy paid off.
The selected field of 18 (with two reserves) is yet to be announced, but the publishing of entries for other races on July day gives us an idea of which owners and trainers have already written off their chances of a July shot and have nominated their horses elsewhere on the card – some with more than one alternative.
One example is Chronicle King, who Candice and Taryn Dawson have already accepted for the Thukela Handicap, with a good draw – but not for the July Consolation, with a wide draw.
One well-fancied nominee at risk of missing out on a July run is Snaith-trained Regulation, who was allocated 51kg off his MR of 106, and sits at 26th on the weights list and at No 20 on the second July log of “probables”. But the bookies are taking no chances with this guy, keeping him at a firm 8.33 in their odds.
Apart from Native Ruler, the most upwardly mobile horses in the betting in the past week have been Snaith’s three-year-old filly Wish List (from 5.56 to 4.55), who will carry 54.5kg off 117, and Candice Bass’s three-year-old gelding Viva’s Liberte (25.00 to 16.67), with 53kg off 114.
