Rising food prices, shrinking aid, and conflict threaten to reverse growth gains across the continent….
The International Monetary Fund has raised fresh concerns over a looming food crisis in Nigeria and across Africa, warning that recent global shocks particularly the ongoing Gulf conflict could sharply worsen food insecurity and derail economic recovery.
In its latest assessment, the Fund said Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 on relatively solid footing, buoyed by improved macroeconomic conditions and stronger growth. However, that progress is now under serious threat.
According to Abebe Aemro Selassie, the region recorded its fastest expansion in a decade in 2025, growing by 4.5 per cent. Several countries including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, and Rwanda posted growth rates above six per cent, while inflation eased and debt levels began to stabilise.
But the outlook has since darkened.
War shocks ripple through economies
The IMF warns that a prolonged conflict could push commodity prices higher, disrupt global markets, and force governments especially those with heavy debt burdens into difficult fiscal adjustments.
In a worst-case scenario, regional economic output could fall below earlier projections, while inflation may surge significantly, hitting oil-importing countries the hardest.
Beyond the macroeconomic risks, the human cost is expected to be severe.
The Fund estimates that a 20 per cent rise in global food prices could push more than 20 million people into food insecurity, with around 2 million young children facing acute malnutrition.
Rising fertiliser costs and shipping disruptions linked to the conflict are already feeding into higher food prices, placing additional strain on vulnerable populations.
Global hunger remains at alarming levels
These concerns are echoed in the latest Global Report on Food Crises, which paints a stark picture of worsening hunger worldwide. The report shows that 266 million people across 47 countries faced acute food insecurity in 2025, with conditions deteriorating in several fragile regions.
For the first time, famine conditions were declared in parts of Gaza and Sudan, underscoring the severity of the crisis.
Children remain among the hardest hit, with tens of millions suffering from acute malnutrition globally.
Nigeria, Sahel under pressure
Nigeria is expected to be one of the countries most affected in 2026, with projections indicating that an additional 4.1 million people could fall into acute hunger.
Across West Africa and the Sahel including Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, conflict, inflation, and economic fragility are likely to sustain pressure on food systems.
In East Africa, prolonged drought conditions are expected to worsen the situation in countries like Somalia and Kenya, where failed rains and high food prices are already pushing communities to the brink.
Aid cuts and rising debt add to risks
Compounding the crisis is a sharp decline in international aid. The IMF noted that 2025 marked a significant drop in financial support, particularly for fragile economies that rely heavily on external assistance to fund healthcare and food programmes.
At the same time, debt pressures are intensifying. More than one-third of African countries are either at high risk of debt distress or already experiencing it, with rising borrowing costs crowding out essential development spending.
Call for reforms and regional cooperation
Despite the immediate challenges, the IMF stressed that long-term solutions lie in structural reforms. Improving governance, strengthening institutions, and boosting productivity in key sectors such as energy, transport, and telecommunications will be critical.
The Fund also highlighted the importance of deeper regional integration through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area, which could help strengthen supply chains and expand market access for local producers.
Ultimately, the warning is clear: without decisive action, the combined effects of conflict, climate shocks, and economic strain could push millions more into hunger, turning a fragile recovery into a full-blown humanitarian crisis.
