Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has warned that an El Niño weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify into one of the strongest events recorded in more than 70 years during the second half of 2026.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, the bureau said sea surface temperatures in the region had surpassed El Niño thresholds, while atmospheric indicators had aligned with the climate phenomenon, signalling the development of a significant weather event.
“Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific,” the bureau said.
“Around half of the models indicate this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950.”
Forecasters warned that a stronger El Niño could trigger excessive rainfall across the Americas while bringing hotter and drier conditions to parts of Asia, where crop planting activities are already facing disruptions. The outlook has heightened concerns over food supplies in the world’s most populous region.
Scientists have also cautioned that climate change is likely to amplify the effects of this year’s El Niño, potentially worsening its impact on weather patterns and agricultural production.
El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is associated with reduced rainfall during winter and spring, particularly along Australia’s east coast. It is also linked to higher daytime temperatures across southern parts of the country, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
The phenomenon poses a significant threat to Australia’s agricultural sector, given the country’s status as one of the world’s leading exporters of wheat, sugar and beef.
Australia’s most recent El Niño event, which lasted from 2023 to 2024, resulted in the driest three-month period ever recorded in the country.
An earlier and particularly severe episode in 2015 and 2016 triggered widespread drought conditions and led to declines in grain and oilseed production, underscoring the potentially devastating economic consequences of a powerful El Niño event.
Boluwatife Enome
