The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has stated that the first three years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration were primarily devoted to addressing deep-seated macroeconomic imbalances inherited at inception, while stressing that the impact of reforms has not yet significantly improved living standards.
In its review of economic performance, CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, noted that the administration took office amid severe foreign exchange shortages, a fragmented exchange rate system, weakening reserves, and declining investor confidence, alongside fiscal strain driven by Ways and Means financing and subsidy-related leakages.
He identified fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification as the central pillars of the government’s stabilisation strategy, explaining that both measures helped ease pressure on public finances and improve transparency in the foreign exchange market.
However, he observed that the reforms triggered significant short-term economic hardship, including rising inflation, higher transport and production costs, and increased import-driven price pressures due to currency depreciation.
Yusuf said these developments contributed to falling real incomes, deeper poverty levels, and a worsening cost-of-living situation, even though some macroeconomic indicators showed improvement.
He pointed to a rise in external reserves toward the $50bn mark, a sustained trade surplus, stronger investor sentiment, and reduced exchange rate volatility from 2025 as signs of recovery.
He also highlighted a 11-month disinflation period from early 2025 to February 2026 before renewed inflationary pressures emerged following geopolitical tensions in March 2026.
In addition, he cited strong growth in the capital market, with the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index rising sharply from about 55,700 points in 2023 to over 254,000 points in 2026, while market capitalisation climbed from around N30tn to above N160tn.
Yusuf further noted that ending Ways and Means financing improved fiscal discipline, while increased domestic refining capacity, led by the Dangote Refinery, supported foreign exchange savings and energy security.
Despite these gains, he stressed that inflation, weak purchasing power, and low consumer confidence remain major concerns, adding that the priority has shifted from stabilisation to translating reforms into jobs, higher incomes, and poverty reduction.
He also flagged insecurity as a critical risk to recovery, particularly its impact on agriculture and rural livelihoods, warning that food security cannot be achieved under persistent threats to farmers.
Other constraints, according to him, include high energy costs, infrastructure deficits, policy inconsistency, logistics challenges, and elevated interest rates, all of which continue to limit productivity and job creation.
On debt, he noted that public liabilities rose to N159.3tn as of December 2025, influenced by currency depreciation and the restructuring of outstanding Ways and Means obligations.
