CBN data shows $1.38bn drop in five weeks amid steady outflows, even as officials insist market-driven reforms are stabilising long-term outlook……
Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have slipped to $48.6 billion as of April 16, 2026, reflecting a steady decline of about $1.38 billion within five weeks, according to fresh data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Figures published on the apex bank’s website show that reserves stood at $50.03 billion on March 11, before gradually easing to $48.65 billion by April 16, continuing a consistent downward movement across the period.
The daily breakdown indicates a slow but persistent drawdown. Reserves fell from $49.18 billion on April 1 to $48.72 billion by April 13, before edging further down to $48.65 billion by mid-April. The trend points to sustained outflows or official market activities rather than a sudden shock.
Although the CBN has not issued a formal explanation for the latest movement, analysts note that such fluctuations are often tied to foreign exchange market interventions, external debt obligations, or broader balance-of-payment dynamics.
Nigeria’s external reserves have historically moved in cycles, influenced by oil earnings, capital inflows, and monetary policy decisions. Earlier in January 2026, for instance, reserves had climbed by over $500 million within just three weeks, reflecting stronger inflows at the time before the recent reversal set in.
The current decline also comes against the backdrop of long-term volatility in the country’s external buffers. In past years, reserves have swung sharply in response to global oil price movements and shifts in investor sentiment, including a notable $1.1 billion drop recorded within a two-week period in 2018.
Recent projections from Fitch Ratings suggest reserves could ease further to around $47 billion by the end of 2026, even as reforms in the foreign exchange market continue to reshape liquidity conditions.
However, officials maintain that the recent pressure does not indicate structural weakness. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has previously noted that the FX market is becoming increasingly market-driven, with reduced central bank intervention and higher daily turnover estimated at around $500 million.
He has also emphasised that fluctuations in reserves are a normal feature of open markets, insisting that Nigeria’s current position remains above the International Monetary Fund’s recommended minimum threshold.
Despite short-term declines, the CBN has projected a possible rebound, with reserves expected to rise toward $51 billion by the end of 2026 under its broader macroeconomic stabilisation strategy.
The outlook suggests that while near-term pressures remain, authorities are betting on improved inflows, investor confidence, and ongoing reforms to gradually rebuild external buffers in the months ahead.
