Record imports from Washington and Abuja underscore shifting energy dynamics as Hormuz tensions squeeze traditional routes….
Europe is rapidly reshaping its jet fuel supply network, with imports from Nigeria and the United States surging in April as geopolitical tensions disrupt long-standing trade flows.
New data from analytics firms Kpler and LSEG show that European buyers are increasingly turning away from the Gulf, once their dominant source of aviation fuel. Historically, nearly three-quarters of Europe’s jet fuel imports around 375,000 barrels per day came from the region.
That reliance is now under strain as instability around the Strait of Hormuz continues to complicate tanker movements, limiting access to critical Middle Eastern supplies.
In response, transatlantic shipments have surged. U.S. exports to Europe are on track to reach between 149,000 and 200,000 barrels per day this month, marking the highest levels recorded since tracking began, according to both Kpler and LSEG datasets.
Nigeria is also stepping into a more prominent role. European imports of Nigerian jet fuel have climbed to roughly 66,000 barrels per day so far in April, another record. The increase reflects the growing influence of the Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and has since positioned Nigeria as a key alternative supplier.
The shift highlights a broader reordering of global fuel markets, with suppliers outside the Gulf capitalizing on higher demand and stronger pricing in Europe and parts of Asia.
Meanwhile, pressure is mounting within Europe’s aviation sector. Airlines have reportedly called on policymakers to consider emergency interventions, including potential airspace restrictions, as supply concerns deepen.
Despite existing safeguards, vulnerabilities remain. European Union rules require member states to maintain at least 90 days of emergency oil reserves, but the mandate does not specify minimum levels for refined products like jet fuel.
That gap is becoming increasingly visible. Stockpiles at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub, Europe’s key fuel storage center have dropped to their lowest levels since March 2023, according to industry data.
Across the Atlantic, the United States continues to dominate global jet fuel consumption but is exporting increasing volumes to higher-priced markets abroad. Recent figures show U.S. jet fuel exports reaching about 442,000 barrels per day roughly double last year’s average.
Nigeria, too, is exporting at elevated levels, with total refined product shipments estimated at 416,000 barrels per day so far this month.
However, the surge in exports comes with domestic consequences. Nigerian airlines have warned they may suspend operations starting April 20 if fuel prices are not brought under control, citing a steep rise of nearly 270 percent since February. The federal government has stepped in, pledging to address the pricing crisis.
Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency has cautioned that Europe’s supply cushion could thin dangerously if disruptions persist. Its latest report suggests that unless more than half of the lost Gulf volumes are replaced, regional stockpiles could fall to just 23 days by June, a threshold that could trigger real shortages.
For now, Europe’s pivot toward alternative suppliers is buying time. But with the Strait of Hormuz still volatile and supply lines stretched, the margin for error is narrowing fast.
