The World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that a prolonged surge in oil prices due to the Middle East conflict could hinder the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) investment globally.
According to the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook, rising energy and fertiliser costs from the ongoing war pose the biggest threat to the global economy, but the impact on AI could be significant.
“There is an interesting possible interaction between the Middle East conflict and the AI boom, in part because the boom is very energy-intensive.
“If energy prices remain elevated for the year, that could put a crimp on the AI boom”, said WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger.
He also highlighted the concentrated nature of AI investment, largely driven by a few major firms, noting that the technology remains unproven in terms of its full economic impact.
“There is some uncertainty about where the future is heading”, he said.
The WTO report underscored AI’s growing role in investment: in the first three quarters of 2025, AI-related goods accounted for roughly 70% of all investment growth in North America, compared with just 30% for property in the three years before the 2008 US housing crash.
Despite previous US tariffs under former President Donald Trump, world trade in goods expanded by 4.6% in 2025, driven by strong Asian exports. However, global goods trade is forecast to slow to 1.9% this year even without an energy shock.
The WTO cautioned that sustained high energy prices could reduce trade growth by an additional 0.5%, further threatening global food security.
About the Author
