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The Uganda Cranes face Botswana away in Francistown tomorrow, October 9 in their penultimate Fifa 2026 World Cup qualifier.
A win should prove timely, as Uganda will be celebrating its sixty-third Independence anniversary. Thereafter, The Cranes will fly from Botswana to Algeria for their final game on Tuesday, October 14. Heading into this round of fixtures, The Cranes are second in group ‘G’ on 15 points, just four behind the group leaders Algeria.
Although The Cranes can still finish top of group ‘G’ if they beat both Botswana and Algeria, their destiny is not in their hands, seeing the way the permutations are likely to play out. Algeria face Somalia tomorrow, and a win, as is expected, will see them qualify for the World Cup as group winners on 22 points.
All that The Cranes will be left with is the possibility of finishing second. Considering that Africa has had nine World Cup qualification groups, the top team in each will make it the 2026 finals in USA, Canada and Mexico.
But the second-placed teams in each group will have a chance to proceed to second round of qualification. Paul Put’s men, will surely be targeting that. Yet, it is also not straight-forward.
It is only the top four second-placed teams across the qualifiers that will make it to the second round. At the moment, The Cranes are seventh of the nine second placed teams, which means that at the moment, they do not qualify for the second round of qualifiers.
In order of merit, the teams on second place right now include: Gabon (19), Madagascar (16), DR Congo (16), Burkina Faso (15), Cameroon (15), Namibia (15), Uganda (15), South Africa (14), and Tanzania (10).
Therefore, as it is, Gabon, who can still top their group ‘F’, since they lie one point behind the Ivory Coast, are in the driving seat for the second round qualifiers. Madagascar, DR Congo and Burkina Faso complete the quartet.
As such, for The Cranes to eclipse those four teams, results must go Uganda’s way. The Cranes should be encouraged by the fact that Botswana lost both its home games against Algeria (1-3) and Mozambique (2-3).
They only managed to beat Guinea (1-0) and Somalia (2-0). Essentially, Botswana have not made their home a fortress. Besides, The Cranes have faced Botswana three times now, winning all.
In fact, in the last game that Botswana hosted in 2016, Uganda won 2-1 courtesy of Kizito Luwaga and Khalid Aucho strikes. Against that, The Cranes go into their game with Botswana, whom they beat 1-0 in their last meeting in June last year at Namboole stadium with a psychological edge.
Inevitably, Botswana will view Uganda as their bogey-side, which puts The Cranes at an advantage, having come off also two impressive victories over Mozambique (4-0) and Somalia (2-0) last month.
On the other hand, Mozambique, who are third in the group, have 15 points, too. They face Guinea and Somalia with their sights on being one of the best four second-placed teams. Mozambique are a team that have been impressive in this campaign, and are clearly capable of stringing up two victories.
In their reverse fixtures against the teams they face in this round, they won both clashes, including winning on neutral ground against Guinea. Unlike Botswana, Cranes is expected to find it hard away in Algeria.
History has not favoured The Cranes when in North Africa. In fact, the last time The Cranes secured a point away in Algeria, the game ended 1-1 during the 1996 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers.
It was a surprise result, but the ebullient combination of former Cranes midfielder Joseph Mutyaba (former Bright Stars coach) and the late Majid Musisi produced Uganda’s goal. The dynamism and confidence of such players will surely be needed in Cranes ranks to end their bad run against Algeria.
Focus will be on Allan Okello, Rogers Mato and Steven Mukwala to do some magic in attack. Otherwise, Uganda has lost its last three games against Algeria, including the one in June last year, which saw the visitors claw back from a 1-0 halftime deficit to win 2-1 at Namboole. Finishing among the top-four second placed teams seems a far cry for Uganda.
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