The rain isn’t going away, according to the South African Weather Service, with wet weather expected to continue this month, including Christmas Day and New Year’s Day.
Senior forecaster Jacqueline Modika said the latest outlook covering the period from December 2025 to April 2026, indicates a transition toward a weak La Nina state.
This was currently influencing the rainfall and temperature patterns across the country.
Rain, cooler days and thunderstorm through Christmas and beyond
Modika said the weak La Nina climate pattern typically brings above-normal summer rain to the northeast of South Africa, such as Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the North West and Free State.
“Looking ahead to the festive season, the service expects partly cloudy and warm-to-cool conditions across much of the country. Isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers are anticipated mainly over the central and eastern parts,” she said.
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“Thunderstorm activity is expected primarily in the afternoons, although increased moisture may result in morning showers in some areas.
“Much of the rainfall will be afternoon and evening thundershowers, which may be accompanied by heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds,” added.
Modika said this month several severe weather events had been experienced, including the recent heavy rain over the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands, resulting in widespread flooding in the uMshwathi municipal area. This led to loss of life and extensive damage to infrastructure.
Severe weather in December
“In another event, a severe thunderstorm in Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Limpopo brought large hailstones, intense downpours and strong winds, with the northern parts of Gauteng and adjacent areas of Limpopo hardest hit.
“These incidents rounded off a year marked by devastating rainfall and flooding in parts of the Eastern Cape.
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“There, more than 100 people lost their lives, including residents of rural communities such as Decoligny near Mthatha,” she added.
According to Modika, temperatures were also affected, with minimum temperatures forecast to be above-normal over most of the country, while daytime maximum temperatures were likely to be below-normal over the northeastern regions due to increased cloud cover and rainfall.
Above-normal maximum temperatures are expected over parts of the southwest.
Weather service scientist Cobus Olivier said in spring, the central and eastern parts of the country had one of the wettest periods of the past 45 years.
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