Wet and muddy test awaits Safari Rally drivers in Naivasha

Crews on Monday had a taste of competition conditions in the 2026 World Rally Championship Safari Rally in Naivasha, but heavy rains remain a big threat to the competition and may compel officials to cancel or reroute a number of the stages.

Meanwhile, the service park has turned into a hive of activity, with different teams assembling and fine-tuning their cars as preparations intensify ahead of the start of the Safari Rally Kenya.

At Loldia stage, Polish rally driver Daniel Chwist and his navigator Kamil Heller, driving Skoda Fabia, said the session gave them a good preview of what to expect during the rally.

“The road is somehow close to what we can expect on the rally stages. We look forward to doing the recce tomorrow,” said Chwist.

Chwist said weather conditions remain unpredictable, something which can change things suddenly.

“You never know with the weather. It could rain over the weekend. We thought it would rain heavily today during the pre-event test but most of the day was sunny, and the stage was dry. We prepare for everything, so whatever happens it will be nice,” he said.

Media Centre Manager Fondo Nzovu said preparations for the second day of recce, and for rally proper are on schedule.

If the forecast holds true, this year’s World Rally Championship Safari Rally could produce a surprise result reminiscent of the 1996 edition, when the modestly funded Mitsubishi Ralliart team, with Tommi Mäkinen behind the wheel of a Lancer Evo, defied the odds to take the win.

Low revving cars generally thrive in deep mud and nonstop rain, whereas the high powered super cars that dominate on dry tarmac often lose both grip and horsepower when the surface gets slick, a lesson crews learnt in 2023 when an unexpected shower turned large portions of the rally route into treacherous, slippery strips.

WRC Safari Rally Clerk of Course George Mwangi has warned that the sections around Soysambu and Loldia might have to be abandoned or be diverted because water-filled depressions and lack of safe escape lanes could leave vehicles stranded in the mire. Still, a lot can change once reconnaissance, which started yesterday, is completed this evening.

It is not yet clear whether external recovery teams will be needed to pull out bogged cars, a departure from previous years when “mud cars” stood by to rescue stuck competitors. On Monday, Mwangi said every safety measure is in place: medical evacuation routes are clear and all contingency plans have been addressed.

Lessons from the past show that steadiness can beat outright speed. In the opening round of the 2026 Monte Carlo Rally, Rally 3 specification Ford Fiesta driver Matteo Fontana posted the fastest overall stage time, outrunning the more powerful Rally2 machines on a mix of snow, ice and slush.

His performance illustrated how, under brutal and ever changing conditions, the gap between a top tier Rally1 car and a modest Rally3 car can shrink dramatically.

While Fontana led in the overall timing, Léo Rossel dominated the WRC 2 (Rally 2) class, and Oliver Solberg eventually won the event in a Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 car.

A comparable upset could be brewing for this year’s event.

Persistent rain has battered Naivasha, but the weather forecast indicates that the downpours will ease on the final day (Sunday), leaving room for a surprise winner.

This weekend also marks the 30 year anniversary of the rain-soaked 1996 Safari Rally, an event that upended the well funded Toyota and Subaru squads despite their extensive Kenyan experience.

In 1996, rookie Mäkinen and the Mitsubishi Ralliart team secured a historic victory, delivering the Japanese marque its first win in 20 years. It launched Mäkinen’s first of four world titles.

Their triumph reshaped Safari Rally’s identity: once a pure endurance marathon that rewarded patient driving over outright speed, it became a contest where mud and water could level the playing field even among the FIA’s most prestigious events.

Mitsubishi’s dominance in the early 1970s, highlighted by Joginder Singh’s triumph in 1974 and 1976 in a modest Colt Lancer, a low powered car with a favourable gear ratio, proved that clever engineering could out-muscle giants such as the Lancia Stratos, the Peugeot 504, and the Datsun 160J.

Yet the Evolution’s raw speed lacked the decades-long Safari knowhow accumulated by Toyota, Ford and Subaru.

Mäkinen’s 1996 campaign began with a clean sweep at Monte Carlo, while his team principal Andrew Cowan, who had taken third place in the 1976 event behind Singh and Robin Ulyate, celebrated a return to Kenyan soil.

The 1996 entry list featured eleven FIA Priority A drivers, including world champion Colin McRae, Kenneth Eriksson and Piero Liati for Subaru, 1992 Safari champion Carlos Sainz and Stig Blomqvist in Ford Escorts, and Mäkinen together with Japanese stalwart Yoshinori Shinozuka in the Mitsubishi Evo3.

Subaru’s Prodrive operation reinforced its presence through Noriyuki Koseki’s Subaru Motor Sports Group team, fielding Patrick Njiru, Hideaki Miyoshi and the late Tanveer Alam.