The stakes of Russia’s demands in Ukraine war

Those who want peace do not start wars, those who respect international law do not violate it and those who reject imperialism do not act like imperialists and invade their neighbours.

Sadly, these platitudes need to be reiterated in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The post-truth world is so hopelessly disoriented, its attention span is so short and the waters of public opinion are so muddied that what used to be a platitude before, can be a useful reminder now.

Let us take a look at where Russia’s invasion is now, after almost four years of carnage.

With hundreds of thousands of dead Russians and Ukrainians, Russia has just recently fully occupied one of Ukraine’s 24 oblasts. It is losing every month from 15 000 to 20 000 dead military.

That means they lose in Ukraine monthly more than the Soviet Union lost in 10 years of Afghanistan.

To make things easier for itself, Russia makes them harder for Africans and other foreign nationals who get lured into Europe’s worst meat grinder since WWII.

The meat grinder needs meat, and Russia gets it wherever it can. Ukraine pays a price, too. But it knows what for: not to be occupied.

ALSO READ: Russia recruitment case: Radio presenter granted R30k bail, but blocked from leaving SA

“If Russia stops fighting – there will be no war; if Ukraine stops fighting – there will be no Ukraine” – another simple truth that needs a reminder.

As the front, despite all the effort, hasn’t been moving largely for the last years, President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered that both Ukraine and Russia stop fighting – along the current front line.

Which was a painful decision – since it would leave many Ukrainians under occupation.

Russia’s answer to peace negotiations without preconditions suggested by Ukraine (and many other countries, including South Africa) was a resounding “no”.

Because President Vladimir Putin does have preconditions. One of the major ones: giving him Ukrainian land in the east and south he could not conquer in these three years.

Let us savour it for a moment: a United Nations (UN) member, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, demands territory of its neighbour as a precondition to stop a war of aggression against it.

So much for adhering to the UN Charter.

Another precondition: full immunity for all things Russian soldiers did to Ukraine. This includes documented mass killings of civilians, torture, rape, beheadings and castrations.

ALSO READ: The US plan for ending the Ukraine war

Much of it we know from Russian soldiers posting about it on Telegram. Because we live in the era of social media and the occupiers take pride and joy at what they do.

Also, because their government promised that no matter what they do, they will get away with it.

Another precondition: Ukraine must disarm. Because Ukraine is a threat to Russia.

Yes, you heard right: a country that in recent years has conducted at least two wars of aggression against its neighbours (Georgia, Ukraine) describes one of its victims as “a threat” and thus demands its disarmament and defenselessness.

Like something very similar did not happen in Europe 90 years ago. History truly is a never-ending cycle. And the only thing it teaches us is that it teaches us nothing.

And, finally, the icing on the cake: all of Russia’s frozen assets are to be unfrozen and all sanctions are to be lifted.

In other words, after starting a war, killing hundreds of thousands, burning down dozens of Ukrainian cities and villages, trying to freeze millions of Ukrainians to death by destroying their energy infrastructure during winter, it should not be Russia’s responsibility to pay damages.

With millions of Ukrainians displaced and de facto homeless, let others save what is left of their shattered lives and rebuild what was razed to the ground.

ALSO READ: Ukraine hasn’t lost the war yet

Ukraine is being openly pressured to accept it. At this point, there is no way to know whether and to what extent these preconditions will be met.

What is clear, though, is that once they are, it will be a different world.

A world where all nations will know: if you are powerful enough and want to carve up your neighbour, while having fun and killing thousands in the process, it will be okay.

Many in the world will condemn not you but your neighbour – if he dares to resist. They will pressure him to give you what you want.

And, in the end, no matter how many you kill, they will even celebrate you as a peacemaker once you gracefully accept the offering of a part of your neighbour’s land, life and freedom.

There is a high probability that the Ukraine peace accord, once reached, will be a template for a new global order in the 21st century. And what a different global order it might be.

Russia’s “preconditions” are just a sneak peek. Its leading ideologue, Aleksandr Dugin, calls this brave new world “the age of new empires”.

Which, apparently, would also make it the age of new imperialism.

NOW READ: Trump’s claimed peace victories fall apart