South Africa’s main political parties must brace for a repeat of the seismic shifts first felt in Gauteng a decade ago when the ANC lost control of two metros and then Nelson Mandela Bay in 2016.
What was then dismissed as a once-off anomaly has since become a trend, reshaping the political landscape. This has forced supposedly stronger parties like the ANC and DA to devise strategies to fit into the hula-hoop of unmandated multipartyism.
With local government elections around the corner, we are likely to see more of the same. The ANC, long accustomed to being referred to as the “ruling party”, is increasingly described as the “former ruling party” in urban centres.
Gauteng politics, in particular, has become a revolving door of leadership, where voters are quick to punish incumbents and no party can take its dominance for granted.
Opposition parties are also facing the wrath of disillusioned citizens. The EFF and DA dropped vote counts, losing to uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and Freedom Front Plus (FF+).
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Analysts argue that the lesson is clear: parties must ensure their manifestos align with the needs and aspirations of voters and deliver on promises once in office.
Over the past three decades, South Africans have grown weary of unmet pledges and are willing to abandon once trusted parties, leaving them on the sidelines of power.
This shift is pronounced among younger voters. For them, liberation slogans and songs are no longer enough. They demand jobs, services and a sense of security for their future.
The ballot has become a selective instrument, wielded with intent rather than loyalty.
Gauteng illustrates this dynamic vividly. The province has become the most unpredictable arena in South African politics.
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The next ruling party is no longer certain. The churn reflects a deeper frustration and parties that fail to adapt risk being discarded.
Ahead of the 2024 national and provincial elections, conversations at grassroots level revealed this mood.
In Jouberton in Klerksdorp, I heard a pensioner saying she once admired Julius Malema but is now disillusioned with the EFF’s stance on immigration.
She feared the EFF’s policy of open entry for illegal migrants amounted to “selling SA to the highest bidder”.
Her view underscores a fault line in South African politics. Immigration has become a polarising issue, with voters demanding parties listen to their concerns rather than dismiss them as xenophobic.
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Analysts warn that mishandling the debate could cost parties dearly at the polls.
The DA has shifted to the right, seeking to consolidate its traditional liberal base with conservative Afrikaner voters monopolised by the FF+. Yet this approach carries risks.
Without significant support from black voters, the DA’s path to national power remains blocked. Its best prospects lie in coalition politics like the government of national unity model.
The ANC is not fully committed to the coalition, hoping perhaps it could still recover and win power back, which is unlikely.
In South Africa, coalitions are fraught with instability with resultant fragmentation of the political landscape. Voters, in turn, are learning to wield their power more strategically.
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The broader picture is of a maturing electorate. After 30 years of democracy, South Africans are less swayed by liberation credentials or ideological purity and more focused on delivery.
For parties, the challenge is twofold: to craft policies that resonate with voters’ immediate concerns, and to demonstrate credibility by implementing them.
Failure to do so risks relegation to the margins, where parties plead for relevance but lack the mandate to govern.
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