Political analyst and North West University Professor Andre Duvenhage says President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 2026 State of the Nation Address (Sona) is likely to reflect domestic tensions and demands, as well as shifting global dynamics, rather than signalling a dramatic policy shift.
Ramaphosa is expected to deliver his ninth Sona in Cape Town on Thursday.
Water crisis
Many will be hoping that the Sona will address the deepening municipal water crisis, the country’s economy, which has been struggling to grow since 2009, and youth unemployment, which stands at more than 45%.
Dry taps, leaking pipes and a strike are just some of the bungles that have contributed to Joburg’s latest water woes as the city teeters on the brink of day zero.
Duvenhage said Ramaphosa will deliver his Sona in a world “starkly different from that of a year ago.”
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Political uncertainty
He said political uncertainty, strained international relations and domestic pressures mean the president is operating in a political climate that is no longer “simmering but rapidly reaching boiling point.”
“We are living in dramatically changing times, at the level of local government, nationally in terms of political developments, but especially internationally. I think all of these environments will, in one way or another, be reflected in the State of the Nation Address.
“At the local level, I expect the president to highlight certain aspects relating to local government. He may possibly announce an election date or offer particular perspectives in that regard. The fact remains that local government, not only within an electoral context but also as a governance focus, will receive considerable attention,” Duvenhage said.
Declining ANC support
Duvenhage also said the ANC is very concerned about its declining support.
“Therefore, I expect both the State of the Nation Address and the subsequent Budget Speech to place particular emphasis on local government, especially service delivery and related issues.
“At the national level, I think the focus will very strongly be on the Government of National Unity, its performance and, perhaps somewhat concealed, its lack of performance. Much of the recent populist legislation that has been passed, or is in progress – such as land expropriation without compensation, the BELA Act, higher education matters and National Health Insurance – will likely be presented in a positive light,” Duvenhage said.
He said Ramaphosa will attempt to “sell” these developments to South Africans and highlight achievements in particular ways.
“Naturally, he is unlikely to focus on failures or limited successes, but I do not think that should necessarily dominate our interpretation of the address.”
Global politics
In terms of global politics, Duvenhage said he expects Pretoria to adopt a stance that leans towards Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela and Cuba, which implies a fairly strong anti-American posture.
“Relations between the United States and South Africa have clearly deteriorated significantly. One can think, for example, of legislation currently being considered in the US Congress that increasingly identifies South Africa not merely as an opponent of the US, but potentially even as an adversary.”
“Furthermore, the president is likely to follow traditional ANC themes. I think he will refer to commissions of inquiry and investigative processes, emphasising that committees have been appointed, that investigations are underway, and that progress will continue over the course of the year. The identification of certain police officials in ongoing matters may also be presented as evidence that action is being taken,” he said.
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Economy
Duvenhage added that economic growth will almost certainly receive strong emphasis.
“Figures will probably be cited to suggest either improved growth or improved prospects, despite the reality that the economy has grown at less than one per cent annually over the past decade. The recent appointment of a new National Director of Public Prosecutions may also be highlighted, although arguably this is simply another Ramaphosa-era appointment.”
The opposition
Duvenhage said it will be interesting to observe the behaviour of opposition parties during Ramaphosa’s Sona.
“I know for a fact that within the government of national unity there is no consensus on certain issues, particularly foreign policy. We are also seeing a significant repositioning of political forces and alliances, and this could, in some way, be reflected in the State of the Nation Address.
“I do not believe the president has much genuinely positive to report, and I expect the aftermath of the address to involve substantial and possibly intense criticism, both of him personally and of the substance of the speech,” Duvenhage said.
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