Somaliland recognition sparks global political shockwaves

Israel last week was the first country in the world to establish diplomatic relations with Somaliland.

Not Somalia, a wreck of a country on the East African coast that has been mired in civil war for the past 35 years, but Somaliland, a different country just north of there that has been peaceful, relatively prosperous and even democratic for all those years.

This is causing a diplomatic outcry because many countries suspect that the deal has a secret clause. They think Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi may have promised to let Israel offload Gaza’s two million Palestinians to his country in return for recognising Somaliland as an independent state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s motivation is clear. He wants to expel the Palestinians from the Gaza Strip if possible, but cannot defy US President Donald Trump’s order to accept a ceasefire.

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Netanyahu is deliberately slow-walking the talks on moving to the second phase of the ceasefire (10 weeks and counting), while the Israeli forces keep trying to provoke Hamas into doing something stupid (401 Palestinians killed and 1 108 injured since the ceasefire).

One Hamas attack could turn it around. Even if Israel got the green light from Trump to expel the Palestinians, where would it send them?

Every Arab state has said it will not be an accomplice in the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip, but Somaliland would do as a destination. It’s Muslim, has room (6 million people in an area bigger than Bangladesh) and it’s not too far from home. But why would it let in up to two million Palestinians?

They would be excellent immigrants in smaller numbers (one of the best-educated populations in the Arab world), but speak an entirely different language and would be up to one-third of the present population.

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But Somaliland does not live in normal circumstances. It’s a classic case of “Marry in haste, repent at leisure”. The British colony of Somaliland and the Italian colony of Somalia both got their independence in 1960, and the people of the smaller bit (Somaliland) voted to join the bigger bit in a unified “Somalia”.

All politics in Somalia is clan based and the Isaaq, the main clan family in the north, came last in government, civil service jobs, education, health care and the national budget.

Within a year the northerners realised their mistake and voted heavily against the new constitution. It made no difference – and when they protested, they were met with repression.

By the ’80s the whole north was occupied territory and the repression tipped over into genocide. It only ended when the dictator, Mohammed Siad Barre, was overthrown in 1991, and the former British colony reclaimed its independence and its name, Somaliland.

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The rest of the once-united country dissolved into almost perpetual civil war, but Somaliland kicked free of the wreckage and has seen no further violence. It’s a perfectly normal country in many ways – an army, a currency, a school system and health care, regular elections – but no other country recognises its government.

It is a victim of the basic rule of post-1945 international law: borders may not be changed by force. The problem is that the rule is no longer being observed – think Russia and Ukraine.

Ethiopia and the UAE will probably recognise Somaliland fairly promptly, because they have some interests in common.

However, I suspect the Somaliland president is stringing Netanyahu along. He has the recognition and in the end he probably won’t help Israel ship the Palestinians out.

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