Fresh projections by analysts have suggested that net foreign reserves could rise to $40 billion in 2026, with gross external reserves strengthening to as much as $60 billion, even as headline inflation is forecast to slow sharply to 6.57 per cent by year-end.
The outlook, contained in the latest Country Watch Nigeria 2026 Edition by Economic Associates (EA) and Proshare, comes a day after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed its latest net reserve position, reinforcing the quality and sustainability of the external buffers.
The report stated: “The EA-Proshare 2026 central forecasts are as follows: real GDP growth of 5.55 per cent for the full year and 6.4 per cent by Q2 2026; headline inflation of 6.57 per cent by December 2026; Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) exchange rate of N1,318/$; gross foreign reserves in the range of $51.5 billion to $60 billion; net foreign reserves of $36.6 billion to $40 billion; nominal GDP of $359.78 billion; and the All-Share Index at 249,000 points.
The real 91-day Treasury Bill rate was projected at 4.01 per cent, underpinning a sustained positive real return environment.
“Five key risks are identified: external commodity and capital flow shocks, reform sustainability, insecurity, pre-election year fiscal pressures, and the risk of misaligned tax strategy.
“EA-Proshare prescribes four structural priorities: addressing the multiplicity of reserve reporting, improving net reserve disclosure frequency, rebuilding FDI stock, and aligning the Monetary Policy Rate with market-determined benchmark rates.”
Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates and Chairman of its Research Board, Dr. Ayo Teriba, said the projections were anchored on structural shifts observed across key macroeconomic indicators over the past three years.
He stated: “The data establish that Nigeria has moved through three distinct macroeconomic phases since 2020. The recovery phase is characterised by measurable stabilisation across all twelve indicators.
“Net foreign reserves have grown sevenfold from their 2023 low. Real interest rates have turned positive. The exchange rate premium has been compressed from 71 per cent to 2 per cent. “These are structural gains, not seasonal adjustments. Our 2026 projections are conditioned on sustaining the market-oriented reforms that produced these outcomes.”
The report argued that recent improvements in reserve levels and exchange rate convergence are not seasonal fluctuations but the result of policy recalibration, particularly in the foreign exchange market and monetary tightening cycle.
Founder and Chairman of Proshare Nigeria Limited and Chairman of its Editorial Board, Mr. Olufemi Awoyemi, added that the research was designed to provide institutional investors with a data-backed framework for assessing Nigeria’s recovery trajectory.
“The Country Watch Nigeria series exists because institutional capital allocation demands more than sentiment and headlines. Our 2026 Edition provides the evidence layer that decision-makers need, drawing on twelve verified indicators across six years of data.
“The recovery is measurable. The risks are identifiable. The outlook is structured. This is the standard to which institutional research on Nigeria should be held,” he said.
Nume Ekeghe
About the Author
