Investment research analyst Precious Balogun has described Nigeria’s agricultural sector as structurally fragile, warning that deep-rooted vulnerabilities continue to threaten food security and price stability across the country.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE News on Monday, Balogun used a simple analogy to explain the weakness of the sector, comparing it to a stacked but unstable structure.
“When it’s all stacked, it looks strong… but just touch it a little, it wobbles, sometimes collapses,” she said.
She explained that one of the core issues is the country’s heavy reliance on specific geographical production clusters, which creates systemic risk when those regions are disrupted.
“There is over-reliance on certain geographical production clusters… whenever there is insecurity… it affects the entire nation,” she noted.
According to her, Nigeria’s agricultural system is regionally specialized, with the North serving as the grain hub, the Middle Belt as the tuber-producing “food basket,” and the South dominating cocoa production for export.
“For the North, that’s the grain hub… for the Middle Belt… yam and cassava… for the South… cocoa,” she explained.
While this specialization improves efficiency, Balogun warned that it also exposes the country to significant vulnerabilities, as disruptions in any one region can affect national food supply.
She pointed to rising inflation in key food-producing states such as Benue and Kogi as evidence of this structural weakness.
“For the food basket of the nation to have the highest inflation… that’s a very big issue,” she said.
Balogun attributed this trend to a combination of insecurity, displacement of farmers, flooding, and logistical challenges, all of which reduce output and drive up prices nationwide.
“Farmers have been sent out of their land… and logistics issues bringing the food down… affect the entire nation,” she added.
Another major concern, she noted, is Nigeria’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture, particularly in the northern region, which leaves production vulnerable to climate variability.
“Most of the farming… relies on rain… when there’s no rain, there’s a problem,” she said.
She warned that climate change is worsening this risk, leading to inconsistent harvests and further pressure on food prices, especially during the “lean season” when supply is naturally low.
“There is a projection that about 21 million people are expected to go into acute food insecurity by mid-2026,” she revealed.
Beyond production challenges, Balogun emphasized that inefficiencies in storage, transportation, and distribution systems continue to weaken the agricultural value chain.
She added that rising input costs including fuel and fertilizer mean that food prices are unlikely to return to previous levels anytime soon.
“We would not be going back to pre-2024 levels of food prices,” she stated.
Despite these challenges, Balogun noted that there are emerging opportunities to strengthen the sector through agro-industrialization and policy-driven reforms.
She highlighted initiatives such as irrigation expansion in the North, mechanized farming projects in the Middle Belt, and agro-processing zones in the South as potential game changers.
“If these projects scale, then we can see a decrease… in inflation,” she said.
Balogun concluded that while the sector remains vulnerable, targeted investments and structural reforms could gradually improve resilience.
“My outlook would be one of cautious optimism,” she said.
Balogun’s analysis underscores the fragile foundation of Nigeria’s agricultural system, suggesting that without structural reforms, recurring shocks from insecurity to climate change will continue to threaten food security and economic stability.
Triumph Ojo
