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If you asked any ordinary change-seeking Ugandan how they imagine a ‘New Uganda,’ they would paint a picture of romance – complete overcoming; happy-ever-after: Gen. Yoweri Museveni, his family and associates are gone.
They have either been arrested and jailed, or scattered in exile. In this ‘New Uganda’ even Museveni’s intellectuals of the occupation (Andrew Mwenda, Ofwono Opondo, Tony Owana, Marcella Karekye, Allan Kasujja, and others) have to shut their mouths forever or only open them in exile.
Museveni’s son, Gen. Kainerugaba, co-octogenarians such as Gen. Moses Ali, Finance Minister Matia Kasaija have to disappear off the political scene. Current Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja, Speaker Anita Among, lukewarm technocrats Nyombi Thembo, Nelson Tugume among others.
Prominent supporters in the entertainment world such as comedian Salvado Idringi or artistes Eddy Kenzo and Jose Chameleone have to shut their mouths forever. In the same spirit, new persons completely from the outside, with absolute zero connection to Yoweri Museveni – not even pictures – take over the different offices of the country.
It might not matter if these persons are educated or experienced enough for these positions, but rather that they are clean from the old regime. The New Uganda government might have to promote, massively, many junior folks into positions occupied by senior officers from the departing regime.
Colonels will have to become Generals overnight to take senior positions in the UPDF, and junior police officers will seniorize really quickly. Roughly, that is the ideal picture that an ordinary Ugandan might paint. Indeed, this is the picture often painted by folks in “electoral opposition”, and folks from among the “scholarly opposition” like myself.
This explains why, for many opposition supporters (even folks inside NRM love this slur), talking to Yoweri Museveni or simply taking pictures with him is likened to betrayal.
Indeed, while I fully understand this sentiment as many folks in the opposition have used talking to Museveni as their chance to eat – the sentiment is devoid of sobering understanding of the pains of transition (especially if violence and complete breakdown have to be avoided).
The painful truth is that a 360 turnaround is historically and practically impossible under the current order of the world. While this was possible in the era of liberation wars (1970- early 1990s) or even when coups were the norm, it has become so impossible in this era of human rights movements, and entrenched interests of the American unipolar world.
FUGITIVE PIECES
The idea of revolution, that is, getting rid of the oppressor and their associates completely is so wholesomely exciting. That some parts of this autocrat have to stay behind for stability and smooth transition is wholly difficult to countenance: “Why don’t they all go?”, the angry activist asks.
In truth, some facts about life and politics are painful to come to terms with. Novelist Ann Michaels has told us her 1996 breakout novel Fugitive Pieces, that “what is dear to us is often dearer than the truth.”
It is my sobering conclusion – equally painful for me – that it will be difficult, if not entirely impossible, to move from Museveni to our beloved Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye or from Museveni to the people’s darling, Bobi Wine.
Maybe after a violent uprising. But not even after America orders Yoweri Museveni (Suharto-style) to hand over power or pick him up, Maduro-style. This is not because these men (Besigye, BobiWine) are unworthy or their efforts have fallen short.
But because the political nature of the modern world is designed to allow only gradual change, and from inside the belly of the beast. To this end, in failure to topple this regime, we’ll have to appreciate the small successes of the opposition forces.
While these are also too little to count, we’ll have to chasten ourselves with the thought, “it would have been worse,” had there been no opposition.
CUMULATIVE TRANSITION
The overthrow of Hosni Mubaraka in Egypt ended in a complete overhaul of the political system. The Muslim Brotherhood, the core opposition won a democratic election and ushered in the government of Mohammad Mosri.
But from the way the system is designed, forces from outside working with forces from the inside gave President Morsi just one year. He would be overthrown through a coup and Mubarak’s old friends took the reins.
It is this fear of an entirely outside group, again, the Muslim Brotherhood winning elections in Sudan that has ended in this delayed transition, and genocide. We could look at Zimbabwe.
It had to be Mugabe’s old friend, Mnanagagwa to overthrow him and take the reins. It has to be someone who has been stealing with the old guards to continue – and then gradually the country arrives at the president of the people.
The truth is that Museveni’s singular long-stay has made these transitions difficult for Uganda. He has made it difficult for his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba from whom after say two terms (2026-2036), we would get someone less problematic such as Nobert Mao (2036-2046), and then Erias Lukwago (2046-2056).
Then we would reach the people’s darling Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (2056- 2066). Uganda under the next president after Kyagulanyi, President Spire Ssentongo (2066-20-76) would be like Switzerland.
Presidents such as Spire Ssentongo can only be forced into that seat. They would never cheapen themselves into buying waragi for ignorant voters. The point I’m making is that we need to be ready for a transition coming from inside.
But the opposition has to remain steadfast because the successes of the opposition might not lead to a complete overthrow of the regime, but definitely prevent it from being worse.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
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