Billionaire links improved FX outlook to reduced fuel imports, refinery expansion and rising domestic production….
Billionaire investor Femi Otedola has projected that the naira could appreciate to below N1,000 per dollar before the end of the year, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity as a major boost to Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook.
In a post shared on X on Thursday, Otedola described the refinery’s milestone as a turning point for the country’s currency stability and broader economic prospects, while congratulating Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, on what he called a transformational achievement for Nigeria and the continent.
Otedola noted that the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily could significantly cut Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, a major driver of foreign exchange demand.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” he stated, expressing optimism that the naira could strengthen meaningfully and trade below N1,000 to the dollar before year-end.
Beyond the current milestone, Otedola revealed that Dangote has commenced a fresh $12 billion expansion project designed to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.
The expansion will also include plans to produce 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene, a critical raw material used in detergent manufacturing. Polypropylene is widely utilised in plastics and packaging, while Linear Alkyl Benzene serves as a key input for both household and industrial cleaning products. Increased domestic production of these materials is expected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imports and further ease demand for foreign exchange.
“Aliko is not stopping here,” Otedola noted, adding that work on the expansion project is already underway.
Nigeria has historically spent billions of dollars annually importing refined petroleum products due to limited local refining capacity, a trend that has consistently pressured the foreign exchange market. Fuel imports have long ranked among the country’s largest import expenses, driving sustained demand for US dollars and contributing to exchange rate volatility.
Analysts have repeatedly argued that large-scale domestic refining could help conserve foreign reserves by reducing the need for dollar-denominated fuel imports. Otedola’s projection aligns with this view, linking the refinery’s ramp-up to full capacity with a potential easing of foreign exchange demand.
Located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, the Dangote Refinery is designed to process 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it the largest single-train refinery globally. At full output, it is expected to meet Nigeria’s domestic demand for petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, with additional volumes available for export.
According to industry reports, the refinery has now reached its full designed capacity, marking a historic milestone and positioning it among the most advanced refining facilities worldwide. The achievement followed optimisation of its Crude Distillation Unit and Motor Spirit production block, strengthening stable operations at Africa’s largest refinery.
As part of the process, the facility has begun an intensive 72-hour performance test run in collaboration with its technology licensor, UOP, to validate efficiency levels and ensure all operational parameters meet global standards.
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