The Opta Supercomputer has analyzed tournament probabilities and identified the countries most likely to lift the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) trophy, which begins this weekend in host nation Morocco and concludes on January 18, 2026.
Despite Ivory Coast entering the tournament as the current holders, following their 2-1 victory against the Super Eagles of Nigeria in the last final, Opta’s statistical model picks the host nation, Morocco, as the clear frontrunners to go all the way and secure the continental title.
The North Africans received a commanding 19.1% chance to emerge as the eventual winners of the competition.
Trailing Morocco, the seven-time champions Egypt rank second, holding a 12.4% chance of winning the AFCON, primarily driven by the influence of star players like Mohamed Salah.
Completing the top five favourites are: Senegal: The Teranga Lions, who won the 2021 title, occupy third position with a 12.3% chance to claim the trophy.
Algeria: The 2019 champions rank fourth, possessing a 12.0% chance of winning the AFCON.
Nigeria: The Super Eagles round out the top five, with Opta assigning them a 7.3% chance of conquering the AFCON tournament.
Other prominent African footballing nations ranked immediately behind Nigeria in the list of contenders include Tunisia, current champions Ivory Coast (who received a modest 6.7% chance), Mali, Cameroon, and South Africa, respectively, emphasizing the highly competitive field expected in Morocco.
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