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With the 2026 general elections pretty much done and dusted, many Ugandans find themselves once again reflecting on a familiar outcome of an election cycle that promised change, ignited hope, and ultimately reinforced the same power structure.
It is now important to examine not just the elections, but the deeper political machinery that has shaped Uganda’s governance for decades. Gen. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has perfected the art of creating and controlling his own opposition.
Over the years, having closely observed the downfall of governments through popular uprisings, coups, and electoral processes across Africa and beyond, he has carefully engineered a system to ensure that should his government ever face similar threats, power would remain firmly within his grasp.
This has been achieved through the deliberate recruitment of select individuals within the military and political class, as well as the creation and grooming of an opposition that ultimately serves his interests.
This controlled opposition is then marketed to Western powers that maintain significant influence over Uganda’s political landscape. This is deeply disheartening for the average Ugandan who passionately supports opposition leaders and longs for genuine change.
It also highlights the urgent need for those seeking transformation to fundamentally rethink their strategy. When Museveni came to power in 1986, he had already identified the political and social fault lines within Uganda and skilfully exploited them to consolidate power.
He took advantage of divisions between the Acholi and the Langi, recruiting strategically from within these communities. He also capitalized on the fallout between Milton Obote and Sir Edward Mutesa II, using it to win the support of the Baganda.
Furthermore, he benefited from the backing of Rwandan refugees, among them the current President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, who fought alongside him during the bush war, as well as from victims of atrocities committed during the regimes of Idi Amin, Obote, and other preceding administrations.
After assuming power, Museveni ushered in an era of complex political manoeuvring. With both Obote and Amin in exile, figures such as Dr. Paul Kawanga Semwogerere, Gen. Moses Ali, and others were absorbed into his administration, neutralizing potential threats while projecting an image of inclusivity.
Paul Muwanga, despite having played a pivotal role in Museveni’s rise to power, was later perceived as a political liability. He was imprisoned twice in Luzira charged with kidnap and intent to murder, a move seen by many as an effort to weaken his influence.
By the time of his release, his health had significantly deteriorated, and he eventually passed away. During this period of political purging, Dr. Andrew Kayira and many others did not survive, setting in motion a pattern that continues to define Uganda’s political reality.
A decade into Museveni’s rule, the 1996 elections presented Dr. Kawanga Semwogerere as a challenger. However, by then, he had already been politically neutralized. In the years that followed, Dr. Kizza Besigye emerged as the face of the opposition.
Despite his persistence and popular support, he was unable to dislodge Museveni and now finds himself incarcerated in Luzira Prison on treason charges, another blatant reminder of the risks faced by genuine challengers.
Over time, Gen. Museveni has systematically recruited members of the opposition, both overtly and covertly. The current Speaker of Parliament, Anita Annet Among, and her Deputy, Thomas Tayebwa, were both drawn from the Forum for Democratic Change.
Many others from different political parties have followed the same path. More maliciously, some opposition figures continue to operate within their parties while pretending to oppose the regime, when in reality they serve as informants and intelligence gatherers.
Numerous members of the Democratic Party, including party president Norbert Mao, now collaborate openly with Museveni. This strategy ensures that even in the unlikely event that power slips from the National Resistance Movement, Museveni’s influence would persist through trusted allies embedded within any future political arrangement.
Should public unrest escalate into mass protests that result in the collapse of the current government, any so-called people’s government would likely include individuals long cultivated by Museveni but perceived by the public as authentic opposition leaders.
This reality may shock many Ugandans, but a significant portion of the opposition operates as an extension of the regime while masquerading as champions of change. With the army firmly under the command of his son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and financial operations overseen by Gen. Salim Saleh, Museveni’s primary focus remains population control and regime preservation. This system has proven effective time and again.
As Uganda moves forward from the 2026 elections, it is imperative for citizens to reconsider their political approach. The responsibility now lies with the people to build a true opposition, one not driven by personal enrichment or political survival, but by a sincere commitment to national transformation and the collective good of Uganda.
The writer is a political analyst and a student of LLB Law with Politics, Cardiff University.
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