Frenchman Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr hit the bull’s-eye when he coined the saying: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”
Political analysts have all been singing from the same hymn book concerning the fortunes of the “dying” ruling party, the ANC.
The country waited with bated breath for the moment that the ANC would drop below 50% of the overall national vote to confirm its death.
That moment came in May last year but, somehow, the ANC hung on to power, technically only losing just one province, KwaZulu-Natal as the Western Cape has been lost for two decades already.
Although the ANC dropped from 57% to just over 40%, it remains in power as part of the government of national unity (GNU).
A huge indication that the death of the ANC has been greatly exaggerated is that competition for the pound seats within the “dead” movement remains very fierce.
The battle to replace the incumbent president, Cyril Ramaphosa, would not be as intense if his position wasn’t viewed as one of real power.
Every day, a new name seems to join secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, deputy president Paul Mashatile and outsider, mining billionaire Patrice Motsepe, in the race for the ANC presidency.
Proxy for national succession
Last week saw the defeat of Johannesburg mayor Dada Morero by the city’s MMC for finance, Loyiso Masuku, in the battle to lead the Johannesburg region of the ANC.
This battle alone is seen as a proxy for the battle to lead the movement nationally.
Masuku, the wife of former Gauteng health MEC Bandile Masuku is aligned with the faction that backs the ANC’s and the country’s Deputy President Paul Mashatile.
For a political party that should be in panic mode because of its declining support, the ANC is carrying on as if it is business as usual.
“This is an opportunity to lead Johannesburg and renew the ANC,” said Masuku after her election.
Like all the ruling party’s leaders, Masuku has learnt the language that keeps people in power: throwing in the word “renewal” in their campaigns and victory speeches.
Outsider needed
There is no need to dredge up the scandals that Masuku’s faction has been embroiled in, or remind voters of the lingering “money for votes” stench that refuses to go away from the ANC’s internal elections.
What should concern voters is that it is the same old comrades who are leading these factions that are switching places at the top of the ANC’s leadership board.
It would not have mattered if Morero’s faction had won the vote. Change has happened with Masuku coming in, but things will stay the same for Joburg voters.
And that is also the script nationally. Leadership changes hands, but things remain the same.
This is a truth that ANC head of elections and chief whip Mdumiseni Ntuli acknowledged in the recently concluded ANC national general council in Boksburg.
Ntuli told the gathering that no-one in the current ANC national executive council deserves to take over from President Cyril Ramaphosa if the ANC does not win the 2026 local government elections.
Although this might be a roundabout way of campaigning for an outsider such as Patrice Motsepe for the top job, it is an admission that none of the current leadership possess the qualities to bring about real change.
An outsider might be the ANC’s only chance to ensure things do change.
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