Crude Markets Lift as OPEC+ Maintains Production Freeze; Drone Caspian exports halted, U.S.–Venezuela tensions spike, and new attacks on Russian energy sites fuel market anxiety.
Oil prices rose on Monday after OPEC+ members reconfirmed their decision to keep production levels unchanged, giving the market a lift after weeks of downward pressure.
Brent crude futures climbed $1.01, or 1.62%, to $63.39 per barrel as of 05:01 WAT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $1, or 1.71%, reaching $59.55.
The uptick follows a difficult close last week, when both benchmarks ended lower for the fourth straight month, their longest losing streak since 2023 driven largely by expectations that global supply would continue increasing.
Market concerns intensified after Reuters reported that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) suspended crude exports following a major drone attack, while rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela added fresh uncertainty.
OPEC and its allies had earlier agreed in early November to pause their gradual push to reclaim market share due to fears of an oversupplied market. After their meeting on Sunday, the alliance said it “reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments,” a stance widely anticipated by market watchers.
Geopolitics also played a key role in Monday’s price movement. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that “the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela” should be treated as closed, a comment that unsettled oil traders given Venezuela’s status as a major crude producer.
Trump later told reporters he had spoken with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, but declined to offer details or clarify whether his remarks hinted at possible military action.
“Don’t read anything into it,” he said.
Analysts at ING noted that supply risks have intensified “following additional Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.”
The CPC, whose shareholders include Russia, Kazakhstan, and American companies confirmed that it halted shipments on Saturday after a mooring system at its Black Sea terminal in Russia was damaged by a Ukrainian drone strike, according to trade and refining sources. The pipeline network is responsible for moving more than 1% of the world’s oil supply.
Meanwhile in Europe, the market mood shifted as uncertainty deepened around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The prospect of a deal had previously raised fears that a large volume of Russian crude could re-enter the market, contributing to the recent bearish sentiment.
Ukraine’s military also announced on social media that it had targeted a Russian oil refinery and struck the Beriev military aviation plant in the Rostov region.
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