Crude rebounds after last week’s losses as investors assess geopolitics and potential supply risks
Global oil prices edged higher on Monday as markets reacted to renewed diplomatic engagement over the war in Ukraine and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, both of which carry implications for global energy supply.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were making progress toward a possible agreement to end the conflict, though he acknowledged that major issues particularly the status of the disputed Donbas region, remain unresolved.
The two leaders addressed reporters following a meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, where Trump said it would become clearer “within a few weeks” whether negotiations could lead to a successful peace deal.
Market analysts, however, remain cautious. Mingyu Gao, energy and chemicals chief researcher at China Futures Co. Ltd, noted that talks failed to deliver a breakthrough on territorial disputes, suggesting that a Russia–Ukraine agreement could remain stalled in the near term.
Against this backdrop, Brent crude futures rose 63 cents, or 1.04%, to $61.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 58 cents, or 1.02%, to $57.32 per barrel as of early Monday trading.
The rebound followed sharp losses last week, when both benchmarks dropped more than 2% amid concerns over a potential global supply surplus and optimism surrounding possible peace talks ahead of the weekend meeting between the U.S. and Ukrainian leaders.
Analysts also pointed to persistent geopolitical risks as a key factor supporting prices. Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures, said Russia and Ukraine continued to target each other’s energy infrastructure over the weekend, keeping supply concerns alive.
He added that instability in the Middle East has further unsettled markets, citing Saudi air strikes in Yemen and Iran’s warnings of an escalating conflict involving the U.S., Europe and Israel, developments that have raised fears of potential disruptions to oil flows.
Meanwhile, Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, said WTI is likely to trade within a $55 to $60 per barrel range, with traders also monitoring U.S. enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and the possible market impact of recent U.S. military strikes against ISIS targets in Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer.
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