New capacity push could add 100,000 bpd in coming months, as reforms and investments begin to reshape Nigeria’s oil sector….
Nigeria may be on the cusp of a modest but meaningful increase in crude oil production, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC Ltd) ramps up efforts to strengthen output and improve operational efficiency.
Speaking during an interview on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global, the company’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Bashir Bayo Ojulari, revealed that Nigeria could raise production by about 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next few months.
According to Ojulari, the country is steadily expanding its production capacity, even if it is not positioned to rival leading oil giants such as Saudi Arabia.
“We are building that capacity. We are not like Saudi, but we can contribute,” he said, underscoring Nigeria’s intention to remain relevant in the global oil market.
Nigeria’s crude oil output averaged between 1.6 million and 1.7 million bpd last year, and the government is now targeting an average of 1.8 million bpd in 2026. The planned increase is also seen as part of broader efforts to stabilize global supply, particularly at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions involving countries such as the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Behind this push is a series of reforms undertaken by NNPC to reposition its operations. After completing a comprehensive portfolio review in 2025, the company is now focusing on improving project delivery, eliminating delays, and ensuring that investments are executed within budget.
These changes are expected to support incremental growth in output, particularly as NNPC prepares to develop new oil fields from 2026. The company is also targeting up to $30 billion in investments by 2030, while exploring the sale of stakes in some of its oil and gas assets as part of efforts to optimize its portfolio.
NNPC’s operations span both wholly owned assets and joint ventures with major international energy firms, including Shell, Chevron, Eni, and TotalEnergies, although details of the planned divestments have yet to be disclosed.
Despite these ambitions, Nigeria’s oil sector continues to grapple with persistent challenges. Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries shows that crude production fell to about 1.31 million bpd in February 2026, highlighting ongoing issues such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment.
Production had earlier shown signs of recovery, rising to approximately 1.459 million bpd in January, but maintaining consistent growth remains a key hurdle.
For the Federal Government, oil output remains central to fiscal stability. While an ambitious benchmark of 2.6 million bpd has been set, a more conservative estimate of 1.8 million bpd is being used for budget planning.
If achieved, the incremental increase in production could provide some relief, boosting revenues, strengthening external reserves, and easing pressure on public finances. Still, the road to sustained growth will depend on how effectively reforms are implemented and whether long-standing structural challenges in the sector can be addressed.
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