Lower Oil Prices Drag Exports, But Falling Import Bill Expands November Trade Balance…
Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of $1.28 billion in November 2025, marking a 4.1 percent increase from the $1.23 billion surplus posted in October, according to the latest Monthly Economic Report released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The improvement in the trade balance was largely driven by a sharp decline in imports, even as export earnings weakened during the same period.
Imports Fall Across Oil and Non-Oil Segments
Data from the CBN showed that the country’s total import bill dropped by 8.07 percent month-on-month to $3.55 billion.
A breakdown of the figures revealed that non-oil imports fell by 4.28 percent to $2.46 billion from $2.57 billion in October, suggesting softer demand for capital and consumer goods.
Oil imports also declined significantly, dropping to $0.94 billion from $1.10 billion in the preceding month. The decline was attributed to reduced domestic demand and improved local refining capacity.
Non-oil imports accounted for 69.39 percent of total imports during the review period, while oil imports made up the remaining share.
The CBN noted that the overall reduction in import bills was the key factor behind the widening trade surplus.
Export Earnings Weaken
Despite the stronger surplus position, Nigeria’s total export receipts declined by 5.22 percent to $4.83 billion in November, compared to $5.09 billion recorded in October.
The drop was linked to subdued earnings from crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products commodities that continue to dominate Nigeria’s export basket.
According to the report, crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products accounted for 85.84 percent of total export receipts, with non-oil exports contributing the balance.
Aggregate earnings from crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum product exports fell by 4.82 percent to $4.15 billion from $4.36 billion in the previous month.
Crude oil export receipts specifically declined to $2.68 billion from $2.82 billion, reflecting a drop in the average price of Nigeria’s reference crude to $65.22 per barrel in November, down from $66.15 per barrel in October. The price decline was attributed to increased global supply.
Earnings from refined petroleum products and gas exports also dipped to $0.73 billion and $0.74 billion respectively, compared to $0.77 billion each in the preceding month, amid weaker demand conditions.
Non-Oil Exports Also Slip
Non-oil export earnings were not spared. At $0.68 billion, receipts declined by 6.80 percent month-on-month, largely due to lower re-exports and weaker earnings from food product shipments.
The CBN attributed the downturn to robust global supply during the period, which pressured commodity prices and reduced export revenues.
A Surplus Built on Lower Spending
The November figures suggest that Nigeria’s improved trade balance was achieved more through reduced external spending than stronger export performance.
While declining imports helped cushion the impact of weaker oil earnings, the data highlights the continued vulnerability of the country’s trade position to global oil price movements and external demand conditions.
As global supply dynamics and commodity prices evolve, analysts say sustained improvement in Nigeria’s trade balance will likely depend on deeper diversification of export earnings beyond hydrocarbons.
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