Sharp rebound in crude production signals recovery after February slump, as government eyes 2 million bpd target……
Nigeria’s crude oil production has surged by 40.5 per cent to 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd), marking a strong recovery from the 1.31 million bpd recorded in February.
The latest figures were disclosed during a meeting between the leadership of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, in Abuja.
The rebound comes after a volatile start to the year, with production rising to 1.459 million bpd in January before slipping sharply in February due to operational setbacks.
Production Back on Track
Speaking on the development, the Commission’s chief executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, expressed optimism that output would continue on an upward trajectory.
“We are doing 1.84 million barrels per day. That is a remarkable feat, but I am sure we will do more,” she said.
The improvement follows the resolution of earlier disruptions, including maintenance issues and challenges at key oil facilities that had dragged output lower in February.
Government Pushes for Higher Targets
Reacting to the development, Edun described the rebound as encouraging and aligned with the economic direction set by President Bola Tinubu.
“That is fantastic news. It is in line with the President’s mandate,” he said.
He, however, urged the regulator not to lose momentum, setting sights on a higher benchmark.
“The trajectory must be sustained. The target is clear, 2 million barrels per day,” Edun added.
Why This Matters
The recovery in oil output could provide a much-needed boost to Nigeria’s fiscal position.
Crude oil remains the backbone of the economy, accounting for roughly 50% of export earnings, with total oil revenue hitting about $31.54 billion in 2025.
With global oil prices still hovering above $100 per barrel significantly higher than the $64.85 benchmark in the 2026 budget higher production levels could:
- Increase government revenue
- Support budget execution
- Reduce pressure on public borrowing
Still Below Long-Term Targets
Despite the rebound, Nigeria is yet to fully meet its production ambitions.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shows that the country recorded a shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels between January and February compared to its target.
Within that period:
- Actual output: ~92 million barrels
- Expected output: ~108.6 million barrels
While the Federal Government is targeting 2.6 million bpd for the year, it is working with a more conservative 1.8 million bpd benchmark for budget planning.
Rising Stakes for Fiscal Policy
The timing of the production rebound is significant, coming amid growing fiscal demands.
Recently, President Bola Tinubu sought legislative approval to increase the 2026 budget from ₦58.4 trillion to ₦67.4 trillion, raising fresh questions about how the expanded spending plan will be funded.
A sustained increase in oil output could help bridge that gap but only if production levels remain stable and disruptions are kept in check.
