OPEC quota miss widens as Dangote Refinery struggles with limited domestic crude supply, forcing reliance on imported feedstock…..
Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped to 1.31 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February 2026, underscoring the country’s continued struggle to meet its output targets and raising fresh concerns about crude supply for domestic refineries.
Latest data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that Nigeria produced 1.314mbpd in February, representing a sharp drop from 1.459mbpd recorded in January.
The figures, contained in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report and based on direct submissions from member states, indicate a month-on-month decline of about 146,000 barrels per day, further widening Nigeria’s shortfall from its 1.5mbpd production quota under the oil cartel.
The decline highlights a persistent challenge for Africa’s largest oil producer, which has repeatedly struggled to sustain output levels amid operational disruptions, aging infrastructure, and crude theft.
Pressure on Domestic Refineries
Nigeria’s inability to meet its production quota is not only affecting export revenues but also placing pressure on domestic refining operations, which depend on steady crude supply to remain viable.
Industry concerns intensified recently after reports emerged that the Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), had begun exploring alternative crude sources through international traders to support the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
A senior NNPC official familiar with the arrangement disclosed that the company was leveraging its global trading network to secure third-party crude at competitive international prices.
“As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery,” the official said, noting that the move was necessary due to temporary constraints in domestic crude availability.
Dangote Refinery Facing Feedstock Constraints
The 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest refining facility, has repeatedly highlighted challenges in sourcing sufficient local crude.
Under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy, the refinery was expected to receive 13 crude cargoes monthly from NNPC.
However, according to the refinery, it currently receives only about five cargoes per month, forcing it to rely partly on imported crude purchased at international market rates.
“While we receive about five cargoes monthly from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these fall far short of the 13 cargoes required to support our domestic supply commitments,” the refinery had earlier stated.
Production Recovery Short-Lived
Nigeria had recorded a modest improvement in oil output in January 2026, when production rose from 1.422mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459mbpd.
However, the rebound proved temporary as production dropped significantly the following month.
With the latest figures, Nigeria has now failed to meet its OPEC production quota for seven consecutive months, a streak that dates back to August 2025.
Earlier data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission also indicated weakening production at the close of 2025, when output fell from 1.436mbpd in November to 1.422mbpd in December before recovering slightly in January.
Persistent Underperformance in 2025
Throughout 2025, Nigeria struggled to maintain production above its OPEC allocation.
The country exceeded its quota only three times during the year in January, June, and July.
Nigeria began the year strongly, producing 1.54mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC target.
But output slipped below the benchmark soon after, falling to 1.47mbpd in February and 1.40mbpd in March, marking one of the widest production gaps of the year.
Although output improved modestly in April and May, Nigeria remained below its quota until June and July, when production edged up to 1.51mbpd in both months before declining again.
Government Targets Higher Output
Despite the recent setbacks, the Federal Government maintains that Nigeria can significantly expand crude production in the coming years.
The newly appointed chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to boost output through regulatory reforms and operational improvements in the upstream sector.
According to the commission, its strategy is built on three key pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion, regulatory predictability, and safe, sustainable operations.
The initiative aligns with the economic agenda of President Bola Tinubu, which targets crude oil production of 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030.
Eyesan said the commission would pursue production growth by recovering shut-in volumes, slowing natural field decline, reducing operational losses, and accelerating new project timelines, while avoiding additional regulatory burdens for oil companies.
For now, however, Nigeria’s declining production levels continue to raise questions about the country’s ability to meet both export commitments and domestic refining needs as the energy sector undergoes major transformation.
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