Production slips below OPEC quota and budget target amid investment and security concerns
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, declined sharply by 8.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.684 million bpd recorded in the same month of 2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Although the Commission did not explicitly state the reasons for the drop in its latest report released on Tuesday, industry data point to weak investment levels and production constraints as major contributing factors.
On a month-on-month basis, output also edged lower, falling to 1.544 million bpd in December from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025.
The figures show that Nigeria once again fell short of its 1.5 million bpd production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Of the total December output, 122,385 bpd was condensate, which is excluded from OPEC’s quota calculations.
The shortfall also means the country failed to meet the 2025 federal government budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd, which was premised on an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of about ₦1,500 to the dollar.
According to the NUPRC report, Nigeria’s lowest and highest combined crude and condensate production levels during the period stood at 1.52 million bpd and 1.82 million bpd, respectively.
“Daily average production was 1,544,345 barrels per day, comprising 1,421,960 barrels of crude oil and 122,385 barrels of condensate,” the report stated, adding that average crude production represented 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
Meanwhile, data from OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) confirmed the trend. Based on direct communication, OPEC reported that Nigeria’s crude oil output excluding condensate slipped marginally by 0.9 per cent month-on-month, declining to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.436 million bpd in November.
The organisation also noted that, on a year-on-year basis, Nigeria’s crude output fell to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, compared with 1.485 million bpd in the previous year, further underscoring the country’s difficulty in sustaining higher production levels.
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