Modest production growth keeps Nigeria Africa’s top producer but structural challenges continue to limit output…
Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026, strengthening its position as Africa’s leading oil producer, though output remained below the country’s Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries quota.
The figures were contained in OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Wednesday, showing a modest month-on-month increase in production but highlighting Nigeria’s continued struggle to reach its assigned output ceiling.
Data from the report showed that production increased by 37,000 barrels per day, rising from 1.422 million bpd recorded in December 2025 to 1.459 million bpd in January 2026. The figures were based on direct communication between OPEC and Nigerian authorities.
Despite the improvement, Nigeria’s production remained approximately 50,000 bpd below its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd. Secondary sources referenced in the report placed the country’s output slightly higher at 1.47 million bpd, reflecting the typical differences in measurement and tracking methodologies used in OPEC reporting.
With the latest figures, Nigeria has now recorded six consecutive months of production below its OPEC quota, continuing a pattern that has persisted since July 2025. Libya ranked second on the continent during the period, producing 1.37 million barrels per day.
The data underscores gradual recovery in Nigeria’s oil output but also points to ongoing structural and operational constraints within the sector.
Over the past year, Nigeria has struggled to consistently meet its production target due to a combination of security challenges and infrastructure limitations. Oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and years of underinvestment in upstream assets have continued to restrict the country’s production capacity, while operational disruptions and maintenance issues have further weighed on output performance.
Although production has improved gradually in recent months, industry observers say sustained reforms, improved security, and stronger investment in upstream infrastructure will be essential to closing the quota gap and supporting long-term growth.
Beyond Nigeria, OPEC reported that total crude oil production by Declaration of Cooperation countries averaged 42.45 million barrels per day in January 2026, based on secondary source estimates. This represented a month-on-month decline of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December.
The reduction aligns with broader production management efforts by oil-producing nations aimed at stabilising the global market amid fluctuating demand and wider macroeconomic uncertainties.
Oil production remains central to Nigeria’s economic stability, as crude exports account for the bulk of the country’s foreign exchange earnings and a significant share of government revenue. Higher output levels are expected to support fiscal performance, strengthen external reserves, and ease pressure on public finances.
For 2026, the Federal Government has set an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day, while adopting a more conservative 1.8 million barrels per day projection for budget planning.
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