Production fluctuates amid operational challenges as December data awaited
Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) between January and November 2025, according to official figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The data is contained in the Commission’s report titled “Crude Oil and Condensate Production 2025,” which provides an overview of upstream sector performance during the period under review.
According to the report, total output over the first 11 months of the year amounted to approximately 18.12 million barrels, reflecting relatively stable but fluctuating production levels across the months.
Production trends
NUPRC figures show that combined crude and condensate production moved within a range of 1.58 mbpd to 1.73 mbpd during the period.
Output peaked at 1.73 mbpd in January, before trending downward to a low of 1.58 mbpd in September. Production later steadied at about 1.59 mbpd in both October and November.
When crude oil production is considered separately, output was lower than the combined figures, ranging from 1.38 mbpd in September to 1.53 mbpd in January. The monthly variations highlight the operational and logistical challenges that continue to affect Nigeria’s oil sector.
The release of December 2025 production data is expected to complete the full-year assessment and provide clearer insight into Nigeria’s compliance with OPEC production quotas and its broader output strategy.
Why it matters
Oil production remains a critical pillar of Nigeria’s economy, accounting for a substantial share of government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.
Maintaining output levels close to OPEC-assigned quotas is essential for preserving Nigeria’s standing in the global oil market and avoiding potential penalties linked to quota violations. Production stability also plays a key role in fiscal planning and macroeconomic management in an economy heavily dependent on petroleum exports.
Beyond production levels, the NUPRC data supports greater transparency in a sector often criticised for limited visibility. Consistent and detailed reporting helps build confidence among investors, policymakers, and industry participants, enabling better-informed decisions and long-term planning.
Sector challenges and outlook
Nigeria’s oil industry has faced persistent headwinds in recent years, including militant activity, pipeline vandalism, labour disruptions, and infrastructure constraints.
Efforts by the government and regulators to strengthen security, improve infrastructure, and stabilise operations remain ongoing, with the aim of boosting output resilience.
In September 2025, production was particularly affected by an industrial action by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which pushed output down to 1.581 mbpd and led to notable production delays and revenue losses, according to NNPC Ltd Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari.
As Nigeria awaits the final production figures for December, attention remains on how effectively the country can balance operational realities with production targets in 2026 and beyond.
About the Author
