Falling receipts highlight ongoing inefficiencies as gas exports and refining gains begin to reshape trade dynamics…..
Nigeria earned $31.54 billion from crude oil exports in 2025, according to new data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria, marking a notable decline despite increased production levels.
The figure, drawn from the country’s Balance of Payments report, represents a 14.41 percent drop from the $36.85 billion recorded in 2024, underscoring persistent challenges in translating output into stronger revenue.
Oil still dominant, but earnings weaken
The decline in crude oil receipts came even as Nigeria maintained its position as a major oil exporter. However, weaker earnings significantly impacted the country’s external balance.
The report showed that Nigeria’s current account surplus fell to $14.04 billion in 2025, down from $19.03 billion the previous year, with lower crude oil earnings cited as a key factor behind the drop.
Higher production, lower returns
Interestingly, the fall in revenue occurred despite a rise in crude oil production.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that crude output increased to 530.41 million barrels in 2025, up from 408.68 million barrels in 2024.
However, total production including condensates reached 599.64 million barrels, still well below the government’s target of 766.5 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of over 166 million barrels.
Nigeria also struggled to meet its production quota under OPEC for most of the year, hitting targets in only a few months. Operational disruptions and outages further limited revenue potential.
Gas and refining exports gain ground
While crude oil earnings declined, Nigeria’s broader oil and gas export segment showed resilience.
Total exports of crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products rose to $48.17 billion in 2025, up from $45.51 billion in 2024.
Growth was driven by:
- Gas exports, which jumped 21.36% to $10.51 billion
- Refined petroleum exports, which reached $6.13 billion
The rise in refined exports is largely linked to increased domestic processing capacity, particularly from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is beginning to shift Nigeria away from raw crude exports toward value-added products.
Imports and outflows weigh on gains
Despite improvements on the export side, Nigeria’s external sector faced mounting pressure from rising imports and financial outflows.
Non-oil imports climbed by 13.6 percent to $29.24 billion, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.
At the same time:
- Services account outflows rose to $14.58 billion
- Primary income outflows surged by 60.88% to $9.09 billion
These increases were driven by higher payments for transport, travel, insurance, and returns to foreign investors.
Fuel imports decline, but challenges remain
One positive development was a reduction in fuel imports, which dropped from $14.06 billion in 2024 to $10.00 billion in 2025, another sign of improving domestic refining capacity.
However, Nigeria still recorded $3.74 billion in crude oil imports, largely tied to feedstock purchases for refining operations.
External position softens
Overall, Nigeria’s Balance of Payments surplus declined to $4.23 billion in 2025, compared to $6.83 billion in 2024.
Despite this, external reserves rose to $45.75 billion, offering some buffer against global uncertainties.
A shifting energy landscape
The data highlights a turning point for Nigeria. While crude oil remains the backbone of export earnings, its declining contribution is exposing structural weaknesses.
At the same time, rising gas exports and the emergence of refined petroleum products signal a gradual shift toward a more diversified energy export base.
Whether this transition can offset long-standing inefficiencies in crude production and revenue generation remains a key question for Africa’s largest economy.
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