Output Falls to 1.42 Million bpd in December 2025 as Shortfall Persists
Nigeria failed to meet its crude oil production quota for the fifth consecutive month in December 2025, according to the latest data released by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, published on Wednesday, showed that Nigeria’s daily average output declined to 1.42 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, down from 1.43 million bpd in November 2025, representing a 0.7 per cent decrease.
The shortfall means Nigeria again fell short of its assigned OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd, leaving an estimated 80,000 barrels per day gap between actual output and target levels.
OPEC compiles its crude production figures from two primary sources: direct communication from member countries and secondary estimates generated by independent energy intelligence platforms.
Despite coming in below quota, Nigeria retained its status as Africa’s largest oil producer, with output above that of Libya, which reported an average of 1.37 million bpd for the month.
Interestingly, OPEC’s secondary source data which often differ slightly from direct member submissions pointed to a higher estimate of around 1.5 million bpd for Nigeria in December, marking a modest increase from November figures.
The mixed data underscores ongoing volatility in Nigeria’s oil production performance and raises fresh questions about its ability to sustain higher output amid longstanding operational challenges.
Meanwhile, global oil markets reacted to geopolitical risks on Wednesday, with prices rising amid investor concerns over potential supply disruptions related to Iran, as tensions with the United States continue to simmer.
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