Crude output averages 1.46mbpd from January to October 2025, missing OPEC quota and budget benchmark
Nigeria produced a total of 443.25 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, according to latest production figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The output translates to an average crude oil production of about 1.46 million barrels per day, leaving Africa’s largest oil producer below its 1.5 million barrels-per-day quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Over the 10-month period, Nigeria achieved roughly 97 per cent of its OPEC allocation.
Monthly production trends
Data from the commission show uneven production levels throughout the year. January recorded the highest output at 47.70 million barrels, while February was the weakest month, with production dipping to 41.02 million barrels.
Crude output rebounded in March and April and remained relatively stable through May, June and July, before softening again in August and September. In October, production stood at 43.44 million barrels, reflecting a modest recovery.
Condensates boost total oil output
Beyond crude oil, Nigeria also produced 60.55 million barrels of condensate during the period under review. This included 17.38 million barrels of blended condensate and 43.17 million barrels of unblended condensate, highlighting the increasing contribution of condensates to national oil output.
When combined, total crude and condensate production reached 503.79 million barrels, equivalent to an average of about 1.66 million barrels per day.
Despite this boost, overall oil production still fell short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of over two million barrels per day, which includes both crude oil and condensate.
Revenue implications
At an average of 1.66 million barrels per day, Nigeria missed the budget target by roughly 340,000 barrels daily, representing a shortfall of about 17 per cent.
In October alone, average daily oil production stood at 1.60 million barrels per day, made up of 1.40 million barrels per day of crude oil and approximately 196,000 barrels per day of condensate. This placed Nigeria’s crude oil output for the month at 93 per cent of its OPEC quota.
The persistent gap between actual production and both OPEC and budget benchmarks continues to weigh on government revenue and foreign exchange inflows, given Nigeria’s heavy dependence on crude oil exports.
Government outlook and projections
While the Federal Government has repeatedly pledged to ramp up production through improved security, reduced crude theft, and infrastructure rehabilitation, the January-to-October data suggest that structural and operational constraints remain significant, even as condensate output provides partial relief.
For the 2026 fiscal year, the government is projecting ₦60.97 trillion in oil revenue, lower than expectations in the 2025 budget. The projection is based on assumptions contained in the 2026 Appropriation Bill presented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the National Assembly.
According to the budget framework, the 2026 revenue estimates are anchored on a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar.
Ambitions vs reality
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has repeatedly expressed confidence that Nigeria could raise output to 2.5–3 million barrels per day, citing improvements from earlier lows. However, current production figures indicate that those targets remain unmet.
Meanwhile, the newly appointed Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to reposition Nigeria’s upstream sector, boost investment inflows, and lift oil and gas production.
Eyesan, who formally assumed office on December 23, 2025, said her priority is to make the commission a business enabler, adding that effective regulation must support growth, investment, and long-term value creation in the oil and gas industry.
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