Lower shipments and weaker values fail to dent Nigeria’s dominance as other African suppliers record steeper declines….
Nigeria retained its position as the leading African crude oil supplier to the United States in 2025, accounting for more than half of the continent’s total exports to the American market, even as overall volumes declined.
Latest figures from the US Census Bureau, contained in the US International Trade in Goods and Services report, show that total US crude imports from Africa fell to 89.371 million barrels in 2025, down from 103.631 million barrels recorded in 2024. The 14.26 million barrel drop represents a 13.8 percent year-on-year decline.
Of the 89.371 million barrels imported from Africa in 2025, Nigeria supplied 46.618 million barrels, compared with 50.793 million barrels the previous year. Although this marked an 8.2 percent decline in Nigeria’s export volume, its relative dominance strengthened.
Nigeria’s shipments accounted for 52.2 percent of Africa’s total crude exports to the US in 2025, up from 49.0 percent in 2024. The shift reflects sharper contractions among other African producers rather than an expansion in Nigerian output.
Export Values Slide Sharply
In value terms, Africa’s crude exports to the US recorded a steeper decline than volumes. The continent’s total Cost, Insurance and Freight (C.I.F.) value fell from $8.945 billion in 2024 to $6.816 billion in 2025, a drop of $2.129 billion or 23.8 percent.
Nigeria’s C.I.F. value also declined from $4.458 billion to $3.545 billion, representing a reduction of $913 million or 20.5 percent. Despite the fall, Nigeria’s share of Africa’s total C.I.F. crude exports edged up to 52.0 percent in 2025, from 49.8 percent in 2024.
The customs value — which excludes freight and insurance costs and reflects the transaction price at the point of export — followed a similar trend. Africa’s customs value declined from $8.767 billion in 2024 to $6.653 billion in 2025, a 24.1 percent drop.
Nigeria’s customs value fell from $4.365 billion to $3.451 billion, down 20.9 percent year on year. The relatively stable gap between customs value and C.I.F. value in both years suggests that logistics and freight costs did not significantly distort the broader downward trend.
Other African Suppliers Lose Ground
A closer look at individual exporters shows Nigeria’s strengthened position was largely due to sharper declines elsewhere.
Angola’s exports to the US dropped significantly from 18.497 million barrels in 2024 to 8.891 million barrels in 2025. Ghana also recorded a notable fall, with exports declining from 9.019 million barrels to 3.804 million barrels.
Libya stood out as the only major African supplier to post a marginal increase, with volumes rising from 16.993 million barrels in 2024 to 17.761 million barrels in 2025.
The data underscores a reshuffling within Africa’s export mix to the US, with Nigeria consolidating market share despite weaker overall performance.
Trade Policy Backdrop
The trade outcomes unfolded against renewed protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused policies under US President Donald Trump. In 2025, Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 percent to 15 percent under Washington’s “reciprocal” tariff regime.
The order, issued in late July and implemented on August 7, 2025, applies primarily to non-oil exports. While crude oil shipments have largely been exempted, the broader tariff environment has introduced uncertainty for American importers and weighed on Nigeria’s non-oil trade prospects.
With oil exports shielded in most cases, the brunt of the disruption appears concentrated in non-oil sectors.
Economists Weigh In
Reacting to the developments, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, downplayed the significance of US tariffs on Nigeria’s broader economic outlook.
“Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy. Our trade exposure to them is very limited,” Yusuf said.
He noted that Nigeria’s exports to the US remain heavily concentrated in crude oil and a narrow range of commodities such as fertilisers, highlighting the country’s limited diversification in non-oil trade.
However, Yusuf pointed to another concern that could weigh more heavily on long-term economic ties: US visa restrictions.
“The bigger challenge for Nigeria’s trade relationship with the US is Washington’s visa policy. Barriers to travel limit business interactions and investment inflows. That is more critical than tariffs in the long run,” he added.
Since returning to office, the Trump administration has expanded visa restrictions and travel-related measures affecting Nigeria and several other countries, further shaping the landscape of bilateral trade and investment flows.
Despite lower export volumes and values in 2025, the data makes one trend clear: Nigeria remains the dominant African crude supplier to the United States, not because it exported more, but because others exported significantly less.
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