Hosts Morocco have emerged as the primary candidates to clinch the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations according to the latest simulations from the Opta supercomputer. With the continental showpiece set to run from December 21 to January 18, the statistical model identifies the Atlas Lions as the team to beat on home soil, while Nigeria’s Super Eagles find themselves ranked as outsiders in the fifth position.
According to the data-driven forecast, Morocco holds a 19.1 per cent probability of securing their second AFCON title, supported by an incredible 18-match winning streak. Opta suggests that Walid Regragui’s squad offers the most complete tactical package in the tournament, anchored by elite talents such as Brahim Díaz and African Player of the Year Achraf Hakimi.
The North African giants are heavily favored to dominate Group A and leverage home-field advantage throughout the knockout stages.
The analytical breakdown places seven-time champions Egypt in the second spot with a 12.4 per cent chance of victory, closely followed by Senegal at 12.3 per cent and Algeria at 12 per cent. While Egypt relies on the enduring brilliance of Mohamed Salah, Senegal arrives with a balanced roster featuring Sadio Mané and Nicolas Jackson. Algeria, despite recent group-stage struggles, remains a statistical heavyweight due to their high-quality squad depth.
Nigeria occupies the fifth spot in the rankings with a modest 7.3 per cent chance of lifting the trophy. While Opta acknowledges the explosive power of an attack led by Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, the model highlights significant concerns regarding defensive stability following the retirement of veteran captain William Troost-Ekong. Furthermore, the Super Eagles face a statistically challenging path in Group C against a tactically disciplined Tunisia side, which could impact their seeding for the elimination rounds.
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