The Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadir, has outlined the conditions required for a manufacturing rebound in 2026, citing macroeconomic stability and effective policy execution.
Presenting the association’s Manufacturing Sector Outlook for 2026 in Lagos, the DG said a recovery in the sector would depend on improvements in key indicators such as exchange rate stability, inflation control, and borrowing costs, alongside targeted government support.
He said the naira is expected to strengthen to between ₦1,300 and ₦1,400 per dollar, supported by higher oil prices, stronger external reserves, improved export earnings, increased foreign investment, and rising remittance inflows.
Ajayi-Kadir also projected that headline inflation could ease to around 14 per cent in 2026, driven by moderating food prices, stable energy costs, and continued appreciation of the local currency.
On monetary policy, he said the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to further reduce the benchmark interest rate to about 23 per cent, in line with the disinflationary trend, to stimulate credit growth and industrial output.
According to him, lower lending rates, combined with the completion of the banking sector recapitalisation programme, would significantly improve manufacturers’ access to credit, boost investment, and raise capacity utilisation.
He projected real economic growth of 3.1 per cent in 2026, with manufacturing’s contribution to real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising to 10.2 per cent. Overall GDP growth, he added, could reach 4 per cent, supported by higher oil output, expanded fiscal space, and growth in the financial and manufacturing sectors.
However, Ajayi-Kadir stressed that these gains would depend on the effective implementation of incentives under the new tax laws and the full execution of the recently approved Nigeria Industrial Policy.
He also called for improved transparency in credit allocation, proposing a publicly accessible dashboard to track lending flows, interest-rate spreads, loan approvals, and sectoral disbursements in real time.
On energy policy, Ajayi-Kadir urged the government to classify manufacturers as strategic gas users, noting the need to close the pricing gap between gas supplied to manufacturers and that supplied to electricity generation companies.
He added that a stable and transparent gas pricing framework, with priority given to domestic supply before exports, would be critical to sustaining industrial growth in 2026.
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