Lions have mountain to climb to reach URC playoffs: All their remaining matches

The Lions already have a mountain to climb after a disastrous start to their United Rugby Championship (URC) campaign, and they likely need at least 47 points out of a possible 75 to be in with a chance of making the competition playoffs.

Ivan van Rooyen’s side have picked up just one losing bonus point from their three losses so far.

In the past four URC seasons, the lowest points tally needed to make the top eight was 48, in seasons two and four, while in seasons one and three 50 points were needed to reach the knockouts.

If the mark is set at 48 points this season, which isn’t a given, the Lions need a further 47 points to even be in with a chance.

With 15 games remaining, a bonus point win in every one will net you 75 points, and that is an impossible task, even for a team like Irish giants and defending champions Leinster.

To get 48 points the Lions would need 12 wins without bonus points – also a very tough ask.

A more realistic nine wins out of their last 15 pool games, and five bonus points in total, would see the Lions pick up 41 points. Add the one point they have now and they’d be on 42.

They would still need another six points from their five losses, via finishing within seven points or scoring four tries, for them to reach the 48-point mark – which might not be enough to finish in the top eight.

Home games

Winning their home games at Ellis Park will be crucial, starting over the next two weekends when they take on Scarlets and Ulster, while picking up a few away wins locally against the other South Africans teams will serve them well.

After the month-long November break, the Lions face the Bulls away and Stormers away, with big breaks in between, before they take on the Sharks home and away over the New Year.

If the Lions haven’t picked up a good few wins by then they’ll be in huge trouble. The second half of their campaign will see them play against Ospreys (away), Bulls (home), Stormers (home), Edinburgh (home), Dragons (home), Glasgow (home), Connacht (home) and Leinster (away) and Munster (away).

Challenge Cup

What the Lions may choose to do this season is go all in on the Challenge Cup competition, which kicks off in December.

In previous seasons the Lions have played mixed teams (full strength and fringe) in the competition depending on if they are home or away, and have not made it past the quarterfinal stage in four attempts.

However, if they are out of the URC running by December, they may have a full go in the Challenge Cup, as winning that will see them qualify for next season’s Champions Cup, which is the main goal, but doing so is easier said than done.