SBM Intelligence Warns Kidnap-for-Ransom Has Evolved into Organised Criminal Economy…
Nigeria’s escalating kidnap-for-ransom crisis generated at least ₦2.57 billion for criminal groups between July 2024 and June 2025, according to a new report by SBM Intelligence.
The findings are contained in the intelligence firm’s report titled “The Year Ahead at an Inflection Point,” which examined key political and economic trends shaping Africa in 2025.
According to the report, kidnappers across Nigeria demanded an estimated ₦48 billion in ransom during the 12-month period but ultimately received ₦2.57 billion, highlighting both the scale of criminal ambition and the limits imposed by victims’ ability to pay.
SBM Intelligence said abductions in Nigeria have transformed into a structured, profit-driven enterprise, thriving amid deteriorating security conditions nationwide.
Thousands Abducted, Hundreds Killed
The report documented at least 4,722 abductions across 997 kidnapping incidents, with no fewer than 762 people killed within the review period.
While ransom demands rose sharply in naira terms, SBM Intelligence noted that actual earnings in dollar terms remained relatively modest due to the depreciation of the naira.
The ₦2.57 billion paid in ransom was estimated to be worth about $1.66 million, only slightly higher than the $1.13 million equivalent of ₦653.7 million collected by kidnappers in 2022.
“Whereas ₦653.7 million in 2022 equalled approximately $1.13 million, the far larger sums now extracted yield only a modest increase in dollar terms,” the report stated, adding that criminals have responded by inflating ransom demands in naira.
Northwest Remains Kidnapping Hotspot
The Northwest region continued to dominate Nigeria’s kidnapping landscape, accounting for 425 incidents, or 42.6 per cent of total cases, and 2,938 victims, representing 62.2 per cent of all abducted persons nationwide.
Zamfara State recorded the highest number of victims at 1,203, followed by Kaduna and Katsina States.
SBM Intelligence attributed the concentration of abductions in the region to vast, poorly governed rural areas and the presence of well-entrenched bandit networks capable of executing large-scale operations with minimal resistance.
In contrast, the Southwest recorded the lowest level of kidnapping activity, accounting for just 5.3 per cent of incidents and 3 per cent of victims.
The report noted that mass abductions, defined as incidents involving more than five victims, made up about 23 per cent of all kidnapping cases and were largely concentrated in northern states.
Victims in such incidents were sometimes forced to work on bandit-controlled farms and mining sites, increasing criminals’ leverage during ransom negotiations and spreading fear across affected communities.
Escalating Violence Deepens Insecurity
Beyond kidnapping, SBM Intelligence highlighted widespread and persistent violence across several regions of the country throughout 2025.
In the North-Central, attacks linked to armed herdsmen persisted, with Benue State recording multiple deadly incidents. In Zamfara, repeated attacks and mass abductions were reported across several local government areas.
The report identified April and May as some of the deadliest months of the year, with combined fatalities exceeding 100 people in Plateau and Benue States, alongside mass kidnappings in Zamfara, Katsina, Kebbi, and Sokoto.
Violence intensified further in June, while July and August also recorded large-scale attacks and high casualty figures in parts of Zamfara State.
By October, large-scale abductions continued, including the kidnapping of 73 people in Bukkuyum Local Government Area, while fresh deadly attacks were reported in Plateau and Katsina States.
SBM Intelligence said the persistence of kidnappings alongside violent attacks points to the consolidation of banditry and communal violence into parallel conflicts, operating with growing efficiency and limited deterrence.
Economic and Governance Risks
The report concluded that Nigeria’s kidnapping problem has moved beyond isolated criminal acts to become an organised and resilient enterprise.
It warned that, in addition to the humanitarian cost, the expanding ransom economy distorts local livelihoods, weakens state authority, and poses long-term economic risks, particularly in already fragile regions.
Background
Nigeria has witnessed a surge in violent attacks and mass abductions in recent years, prompting renewed calls for decisive government action.
One of the most high-profile incidents occurred in late November, when gunmen abducted more than 300 students and 12 teachers from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Papiri, Niger State. Although the victims were later released, authorities did not disclose whether ransom was paid.
In response to rising insecurity, President Bola Tinubu recently approved an increase in the Nigeria Police Force recruitment exercise from 30,000 to 50,000, citing the scale of security challenges across the country.
About the Author
