The EFF has been mobilising its “ground forces” to protest outside the East London magistrate’s court today, when its leader, Julius Malema, will hear his fate after being convicted of illegal discharging a firearm in public – an offence which could carry a jail sentence of up to 15 years.
The sight of hundreds, if not thousands, of red berets would, obviously, be an intimidation tactic, and one wonders whether Malema’s organisation has the same sort of influence Jacob Zuma’s friends had when they mobilised a large chunk of KwaZulu-Natal into an insurrection after Zuma was jailed for contempt of court.
A lot is at stake, both for Malema personally and for his organisation as a whole.
If he is jailed, he will lose his seat in parliament and, say experts, such a sentence could effectively end his political career.
Even if he tries to continue running the EFF from behind bars – and he would have to lose an appeal against any custodial sentence first – it is likely the world – and politics – will move on.
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Without him, the EFF would also be headed for the toilet because it has no one else of substance, or at least with the charisma of Malema.
The sentence will also be an interesting test of whether the judiciary is prepared to stand up for the law and show that everyone, politicians included, is equal before it.
As it is, it was only the unrelenting pressure from lobby group AfriForum that saw a prosecution launched in the first place… a clear indication that position offers protection in modern-day South Africa.
Anything less than a jail term will probably be seen by Malema and his supporters as a victory.
And it may well encourage others in the reckless discharge of guns, which is already a feature of South African social life.
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