Dirty and torn Iran flag, symbol of resistance and victory. A scene of war and devastation, the ruins of a city destroyed by conflicts. 3D Rendering.
After two weeks of silence about the mass slaughter of Iranian protesters on 8 and 9 January, the partial restoration of internet services in the country is allowing the first plausible estimates of how bad it was to reach the international media.
It was very bad. The most plausible estimates run from 22 000 to 30 304 killings in two days, mainly based on reports of hospital admissions, mortuaries and mass grave sites before the internet was fully shut down.
Indeed, many executions were carried out in hospitals, targeting protesters being treated there for shotgun wounds.
There are 92 million people in Iran, but the protests took place all over the country (400 cities and towns).
The deaths were so numerous that almost everybody will know somebody who knows somebody else who had a friend or family member killed, injured or jailed this month. Iran is irreversibly changed by this.
Hitherto the regime had support from a large minority of Shia Muslims and many more people wanted to be left in peace.
Henceforward, the regime will effectively be an occupation force that rules only by terror – but such regimes can last a long time if they are ruthless enough.
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Consider the very different fates of Syria and Egypt in the Arab Spring of 2011-2013. The dictators of the two countries faced non-violent pro-democracy movements and the Egyptians overthrew General Hosni Mubarak.
There was a free election but they elected an Islamist government, whereupon the army seized power. Non-violent supporters of the elected government mobilised again, but army and police snipers shot 2 400 protesters dead in Cairo and the protests stopped.
General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s regime, supported by the US, remains in power. In Syria, by contrast, the ruling Assad family started shooting the non-violent protesters right away in 2011, unleashing a civil war that lasted 13 years, devastating the entire country.
It even looked like Bashar al-Assad had won for a while, but he relied on Russian support as much as el-Sisi does on US backing.
When Vladimir Putin launched his “three-day” invasion of Ukraine four years ago, the war soaked up all Russia’s attention and resources… and Assad’s regime just withered on the vine.
In late 2024, he was overthrown in a week by a small militia led by a former member of Islamic State, Ahmed al-Sharaa. He insists he will run Syria as a democratic state that is tolerant of all religions.
I would not bet the farm on it – nor on a successful democratic revolution in Iran. Yes, Iran is not an Arab country and Shia fanatics are different from Sunni fanatics, but their recent histories have run on parallel tracks for most of the past century.
Even if the non-violent protests in Iran this week had not been drowned in blood, the odds were always against a happy ending to their protests against Iran’s entrenched religious dictatorship.
And into all this now steps Donald Trump. (All journalists are now contractually obliged to mention his name at least once in every story they file, whatever the topic.)
He tells the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that “another beautiful armada [is] floating beautifully toward Iran right now” and threatens a second direct US attack on the country.
It’s all about staying in the limelight, but not with the goal of helping the Iranian protesters, whom he told on 13 January to “keep protesting – take over your institutions!!! … help is on its way”.
There was no practical way for the US military to help them, either then or now, and, besides, the slaughter in Iran happened the previous week.
It’s all ancient history for Trump anyway. This week’s threats are to force Iran to “COME TO THE TABLE and negotiate a fair and equitable deal” on its nuclear weapons programme.
You know, the one he claimed to have destroyed last June. Ignore it. It’s probably just more empty bluster, and you couldn’t affect the outcome anyway.
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