CBN Business Expectations Survey shows firms remain optimistic even as security risks and operating costs bite
Insecurity, heavy taxation, and unreliable electricity supply remained the most serious obstacles confronting Nigerian businesses in November 2025, even as overall business confidence improved and expectations for growth, employment, and exchange rate stability strengthened.
This is contained in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Business Expectations Survey, which highlights the disconnect between persistent structural challenges and a generally positive outlook among firms.
The survey revealed that insecurity ranked as the most severe constraint, posting an index score of 70.1, reflecting the continued impact of security risks on production costs, logistics, and investment decisions nationwide.
High or multiple taxes followed closely with an index of 69.7, underscoring long-standing concerns over the cumulative burden of levies imposed by federal, state, and local governments.
Insufficient power supply ranked third at 69.3, highlighting businesses’ continued dependence on self-generated electricity and the resulting pressure on operating costs.
High interest rates also remained a major concern, scoring 67.2, as tight monetary conditions and elevated lending rates continued to restrict access to credit. Financial challenges, including liquidity constraints and weak balance sheets, completed the top five with an index score of 64.7.
What the report says
According to the CBN, “Respondents identified insecurity (70.1), high or multiple taxes (69.7), insufficient power supply (69.3), high interest rate (67.2), and financial problems (64.7) as the top five business constraints in November 2025, highlighting factors that directly affect operational stability and profitability.”
Other notable challenges cited by respondents included high bank charges at 64.0, unclear economic regulations at 61.4, and an unfavourable economic environment at 61.2.
At the lower end of the top ten constraints were poor infrastructure and an unfavourable political climate, both scoring 57.7, suggesting that immediate financial and operational issues weighed more heavily on businesses than political concerns during the review period.
Business confidence strengthens despite bottlenecks
Despite these constraints, the survey showed a broadly positive outlook across the economy. The aggregate Business Confidence Index stood at 37.5 points in November 2025, indicating sustained optimism among firms.
The index is projected to rise further to 43.9 points in the next month, 49.6 points over the next three months, and peak at 52.8 points within the next six months, reflecting improving expectations.
All major sectors reported optimism about the macroeconomic environment. The industry sector recorded the highest confidence level at 38.1 points, followed by services at 37.5 points and agriculture at 36.3 points.
Expectations remained positive across all sectors for the near and medium term, suggesting confidence in continued economic activity.
At the firm level, mining and quarrying led with a business confidence index of 50.0 points, reflecting strong sentiment in the extractive sector. Construction followed at 33.3 points, while market services recorded 31.6 points.
Manufacturing, agriculture, and non-market services also remained in positive territory, indicating broad-based optimism despite prevailing challenges.
Businesses expressed particular confidence in business activity volumes, with positive indices recorded for total orders, financial conditions, and access to credit. Respondents expect favourable conditions in December 2025, February 2026, and May 2026, pointing to expectations of rising demand and improved turnover.
Regional outlook
Regionally, macroeconomic sentiment was positive across all geopolitical zones, though at varying levels. The North-East recorded the highest optimism at 52.7 index points, while the South-East posted the lowest at 18.7 points.
Expectations for the next month and next three months were strongest in the North-East and North-West, while the North-West and South-West led optimism over the next six months.
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