The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global public debt could exceed 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2029, reaching its highest level in more than seven decades.
The projection is contained in the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor Report, released on Wednesday during the ongoing 2025 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.
“The global public debt is projected to rise above 100 percent of GDP by 2029, the highest level since 1948,” the report stated.
According to the IMF, the post-pandemic fiscal environment has resulted in a steeper and more sustained rise in global debt levels, with risks tilted toward even faster accumulation. Under a 5 percent risk scenario, global debt could climb as high as 124 percent of GDP within four years.
The fund noted that while debt profiles vary widely across countries, many advanced economies including Canada, China, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States already have public debt levels exceeding or projected to exceed 100 percent of GDP.
Despite their high debt, the IMF said these economies generally benefit from deep and liquid bond markets, giving them more room for policy flexibility and keeping their fiscal risk moderate.
In contrast, several emerging markets and low-income countries face tighter fiscal constraints, even with lower debt ratios. The IMF warned that 55 countries are currently in or at high risk of debt distress, underscoring the need for timely debt restructuring and stronger global debt architecture.
The fund said it is working to improve debt management mechanisms through initiatives such as the Common Framework and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable.
On Nigeria, the IMF projected that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio would decline slightly from 36.4 percent in 2025 to 35 percent in 2026, before inching up to 35.3 percent in 2027.
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