Improved outlook reflects reform momentum and broader regional recovery
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, up from the 4.2 per cent forecast issued in October 2025.
The revised estimate was published in the January 2026 update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), released on Monday. The Fund said the adjustment forms part of its broader reassessment of global and regional economic conditions, which are expected to remain relatively stable in the medium term.
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s improved outlook aligns with gradual but widespread strengthening across Sub-Saharan Africa, rather than representing an isolated upgrade. The Fund’s data indicate that economic momentum is building across the region as countries adjust to post-pandemic and post-shock conditions.
Nigeria’s revised forecast follows a period of significant economic recalibration, marked by policy reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability. In its October 2025 WEO, the IMF had flagged concerns around inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints, and structural bottlenecks, which weighed on its earlier projections.
Since then, Nigerian authorities have continued to implement measures focused on fiscal coordination, macroeconomic stabilisation, and productivity improvements across key sectors of the economy. These efforts, the Fund suggests, are beginning to reflect in medium-term growth expectations.
The IMF reiterated that structural reforms remain critical to sustaining long-term growth in emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the Fund revised its regional growth estimate for 2025 to 4.1 per cent from 4.0 per cent, and for 2026 to 4.4 per cent from 4.3 per cent, pointing to a broadly shared recovery trend.
At the global level, the IMF projects economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, broadly consistent with the estimated 3.3 per cent expansion recorded in 2025. The Fund said this outlook reflects a balance between headwinds from evolving trade policies and tailwinds from technology-led investment, including artificial intelligence, alongside relatively accommodative financial conditions.
Global inflation is expected to continue moderating, with headline inflation projected to decline from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, before easing further to 3.4 per cent in 2027, according to the IMF.
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